Event:
Recently, the general office of the national health and Health Council issued the notice on the issuance of the New Coronavirus pneumonia diagnosis and treatment plan (trial version ninth), revising the relevant contents.
Comments:
Classified management shall be implemented for confirmed cases. The diagnosis and treatment plan for New Coronavirus pneumonia (trial version ninth) clearly pointed out that centralized management of light cases should be carried out, and the relevant centralized isolation sites could not segregate the entry personnel and close contacts. During isolation management, symptomatic treatment and condition monitoring shall be done well. If the condition worsens, it shall be transferred to the designated hospital for treatment. Ordinary, severe and dangerous cases and cases with severe high-risk factors should be treated in designated hospitals. Among them, severe and dangerous cases should be treated in ICU as soon as possible, and patients with high-risk factors and severe tendency should also be treated in ICU. Compared with the previous version, the new diagnosis and treatment plan deletes the identification of asymptomatic close contacts and the treatment plan of separate isolation of suspected cases, and the isolation standard is relaxed. Asymptomatic and light cases have mild clinical symptoms and usually do not need too much treatment. The classified management system greatly reduces the pressure on the occupation of medical resources, and provides a material basis for further relaxing the restrictions on epidemic prevention in combination with temporary medical resources such as shelter hospitals.
Specific anti covid-19 drugs were added to the diagnosis and treatment plan. The new diagnosis and treatment plan includes two specific anti-covid-19 drugs approved by the State Food and drug administration into the diagnosis and treatment plan, namely pf-07321332 / ritonavir tablets (paxlovid) and domestic monoclonal antibodies (ambavir monoclonal antibody / romisvir monoclonal antibody injection). According to the phase 2 / 3 epic-hr test data of Pfizer paxlovid, the risk of hospitalization or death was reduced by 89% within three days after the onset of symptoms, and 88% within five days after the onset of symptoms. The ambacizumab / romisizumab combination therapy reduced the risk of hospitalization and death by 80% in covid-19 outpatients at high risk of clinical progression. The inclusion of two covid-19 drugs in the diagnosis and treatment plan will significantly reduce the probability of covid-19 confirmed patients developing into severe and dangerous cases, and accelerate the influenza process of covid-19 pneumonia.
Adjust the discharge standard and reduce the isolation time. The new version of the diagnosis and treatment plan will be changed to “two times of respiratory tract specimens nucleic acid test negative” in the discharge standard and the discharge standard. It is revised as “two consecutive New Coronavirus nucleic acid detection N genes and ORF gene Ct values are all over 35, or two times New Coronavirus nucleic acid detection negative”, discharge standards show a relaxation trend. “14 days of isolation management and health status monitoring after discharge” is revised to “release isolation management or 7 days of home health monitoring after discharge”, and the isolation standard is relaxed.
Investment strategy: the new version of the New Coronavirus pneumonia diagnosis and treatment plan has removed the identification of asymptomatic closure, reduced the isolation standard, increased the use of COVID-19 as a treatment plan, released the signal of epidemic prevention and relaxation, and is expected to gradually return to normal life style in the long run. However, the recent sporadic outbreaks in many places in China have restricted public travel in important cities such as Shanghai and Shenzhen, and the relaxation of epidemic prevention policies will probably not be in place in one step. We still need to wait for the overall immunization to reach a high level. In the short term, the epidemic prevention policy will continue to be disturbed by the scattered epidemic in the process of gradual relaxation. It is suggested to pay careful attention to the leading outbound tourists such as Caissa Tosun Development Co.Ltd(000796) ( Caissa Tosun Development Co.Ltd(000796) ) and Utour Group Co.Ltd(002707) ( Utour Group Co.Ltd(002707) ); We are optimistic about the implementation of follow-up assistance and relief policies, and recommend leading enterprises in scenic spots such as Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) ( Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) ); Recommend hotel leaders Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) ( Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) ), Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) ( Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) ) with high proportion of light assets and small fluctuation of performance; It is recommended that the tax-free leader China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) ( China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) ) with low current valuation and safety margin benefit from consumption return and epidemic repair for a long time.
Risk tips: repeated covid-19 epidemic, less than expected policy promotion, changes in industrial policies, intensified competition, etc.
