Event: from January to February 2022, the total retail sales of social consumer goods reached 7442.6 billion yuan, an increase of 6.7% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations.
Social zero growth rate exceeded expectations. From January to February 2022, the growth rate of social zero was 6.7%, significantly higher than the 4.6% unanimously expected by wind. The growth rate increased by 5.0 percentage points month on month compared with December 2021, and increased by 2.8 percentage points compared with the average growth rate of two years in 2021. At the beginning of the year, the epidemic prevention and control was relatively good, the promotion fee policy was implemented, the growth of commodity retail was good, and the contact consumption such as catering accelerated the recovery. From January to February, the retail sales of commodities increased by 6.5% year-on-year, and the catering revenue increased by 8.9% year-on-year, driving the growth rate of total social zero more than expected. After deducting price factors, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 4.9% year-on-year from January to February 2022.
Sub channels: online penetration increased year-on-year, and physical retail operation improved. From January to February 2022, the online retail sales of physical goods increased by 12.3% year-on-year, 0.3 percentage points higher than the cumulative growth rate of 2021, accounting for 22.0% of the total social zero, 1.3 percentage points higher than the same period last year. Among the online retail sales of physical goods, food, clothing and use goods increased by 12.7%, 3.9% and 15.1% respectively. In physical stores, from January to February, the retail sales of convenience stores, specialty stores, specialty stores and department stores above the quota increased by 12.8%, 10.3%, 5.3% and 2.1% respectively year-on-year, which was faster than the average growth rate in 2021.
Category: the required consumption growth rate is relatively stable, and the optional consumption growth rate rebounded month on month. Among the required consumer goods, grain, oil and food, beverages, tobacco and alcohol above the quota increased by 7.9%, 11.4% and 13.6% respectively year-on-year, maintaining steady growth. Among the optional consumer goods, clothing, shoes, hats, knitwear and textiles, cosmetics, gold, silver and jewelry, household appliances and audio-visual equipment increased by 4.8%, 7.0%, 19.5% and 12.7% year-on-year. The growth rate was significantly higher than that in December 2021.
Location of sub business units: the year-on-year growth rate of the total amount of rural cooperatives is slightly higher than that of cities and towns. From January to February, the year-on-year growth rate of the total amount of urban / rural cooperatives was 6.7% / 7.1% respectively, and that in December 2021 was 1.5% / 2.8%. The growth rate increased significantly month on month.
Investment suggestion: in terms of offline retail, the jewelry retail business model is good, the market concentration is gradually improved, and it is recommended to have its own characteristics α Leading company Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) ( Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) . SZ); Shangchao may usher in fundamental repair in 2022, and the short-term epidemic may have a boosting effect on the performance of the first quarter. It is recommended that the leading company Jiajiayue Group Co.Ltd(603708) ( Jiajiayue Group Co.Ltd(603708) . SH) with density economic barriers. E-commerce is getting closer to the stock market, the competition has intensified, and the concentration of the industry shows a downward trend. In the short term, JD (9618. HK), which benefits from antitrust dividends and provides differentiated supply chain, is recommended; Long term optimistic about the stability of meituan (3690. HK) core business and the differentiated competitive advantage of VIPs. N.
Risk warning event: covid-19 epidemic situation is repeated; Declining consumption tendency; Industry competition intensifies.
