Industry core view:
From January to February 2022, China’s total retail sales of social consumer goods reached 7442.6 billion yuan, an increase of + 6.70% over the same period in 2021; After deducting price factors, the actual increase is + 4.90% compared with the same period in 2021. During the Spring Festival, under the background of precise prevention and control and not “one size fits all”, the overall consumption data reversed the weak trend in the first two months and the catering revenue recovered. Among them, the growth rate of commodity retail rebounded, with a year-on-year increase of + 6.50%, and the catering revenue changed from negative to positive, with a year-on-year increase of + 8.90%. ① Subdivided categories: the optional consumption performance is bright, and the high scenery of gold, silver, jewelry and textile categories continues. From January to February, the growth rate of grain, oil, food, beverage and Chinese and Western medicine continued to slow down, the growth rate of gold, silver, jewelry and textile products changed from negative to positive, and the growth rate of cosmetics, tobacco and alcohol, cultural and office supplies recovered. ② Online: the year-on-year growth rate of online retail sales fell, and the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of national online retail sales from January to February was + 10.20%. In the online retail sales of physical goods, food / clothing / use goods were + 12.70% / + 3.90% / + 15.10% year-on-year respectively. From January to February, the economic recovery momentum was good, the double favorable environment of the Spring Festival holiday and the Winter Olympic Games was mild, the consumption growth rate was improved, the sales of optional consumer products were active, and the new year started well. However, at present, there are many outbreaks in China, and the prevention and control efforts are strengthened. The sustainability of China’s consumption recovery may face short-term pressure. The following suggestions are put forward: 1. Food and beverage: the price of essential commodities will be transferred to the cost of the strong, while the news of the price increase of high-end and second class liquor will gradually fall. The future valuation of consumer blue chip is expected to usher in further restoration. We should pay attention to the leading high-end, Baijiu Baijiu, condiment, leisure snacks and brine products. ② Beauty Jewelry: in the beauty age, the beauty jewelry market is broad and the high scenery continues. It is suggested to pay attention to the leader of beauty jewelry.
Key investment points:
Overall: from January to February, the social zero growth rate was + 6.70% year-on-year, and the Spring Festival holiday led to the recovery of catering revenue. From January to February 2022, the total retail sales of social consumer goods reached 7442.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 6.70%, an increase of 5.00 PCT over December last year. ① Classified by consumption type, the growth rate of commodity retail rebounded, and the catering revenue changed from negative to positive. From January to February, retail sales increased by + 6.50% year-on-year, up 4.20 PCT from December last year; Catering revenue was + 8.90% year-on-year, up 11.10 PCT from December last year. ② By region, both rural and urban growth picked up. From January to February, the retail sales of urban consumer goods were + 6.70% year-on-year, and that of rural consumer goods was + 7.10% year-on-year.
Breakdown: among the required categories, the growth rate of grain, oil, food, beverage and Chinese and Western medicine slowed down. Among the optional categories, the growth rate of gold, silver, jewelry and textile categories has changed from negative to positive, and the growth rate of cosmetics, tobacco and alcohol, cultural and office supplies has picked up. From January to February, among the 15 categories of commodities in units above the quota, the retail sales of 14 categories of commodities increased year-on-year, of which the retail sales of 9 categories of commodities increased compared with last December. ① Required: the growth rate of grain, oil, food, beverage and Chinese and Western medicine above the quota slowed down, with a year-on-year increase of + 7.90% / + 11.40% / 7.50% respectively. ② Optional: the growth rate of gold, silver, jewelry and textile products of units above the quota changed from negative to positive, with a year-on-year increase of + 19.50% / 4.80%. The growth rate of cosmetics, tobacco, alcohol and cultural office supplies recovered, with a year-on-year increase of + 7.00% / + 13.60% / + 11.10% respectively.
Online: the year-on-year growth rate of online retail sales fell. From January to February 2022, the national online retail sales reached 1955.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 10.20%. Among them, the online retail sales of physical goods were 163711 billion yuan, an increase of 12.30%, accounting for 22.00% of the total retail sales of social consumer goods, an increase of 1.30 PCT over the same period in 2021. In the online retail sales of physical goods, food / clothing / use goods were + 12.70% / + 3.90% / + 15.10% year-on-year respectively.
Risk factors: sporadic outbreak risk, consumption recovery less than expected risk and policy risk.
