From January to February, the data of the construction industry was released, the manufacturing investment remained resilient, the growth rate of infrastructure increased, and the real estate investment recovered slightly; The overall performance of land transactions was poor, the decline in construction and the decline in real estate sales area narrowed, but the price decreased significantly, which needs to be further strengthened by the policy. The amount of new orders signed by central construction enterprises increased steadily year-on-year.
Investment data: from January to February, the growth rate of fixed asset investment maintained a high level, the growth rate of manufacturing and infrastructure investment was obvious, and the real estate investment recovered: from January to February, the fixed asset investment was 5.4 trillion, an increase of 12.2% at the same time. Among them, the completed investment in manufacturing, infrastructure and real estate development was 1.5 trillion, 1.3 trillion and 1.4 trillion respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 20.9%, 8.6% and 3.7% respectively. In terms of structure, the manufacturing industry continues to maintain a high growth rate, which has become an important sub item to drive investment data; Infrastructure investment continued the growth trend in December, and the year-on-year growth rate was significantly improved; After four consecutive months of decline, real estate investment also ushered in signs of recovery.
Infrastructure investment: from January to February, the growth rate of infrastructure investment increased significantly, and the investment in power, transportation and public utilities increased year-on-year: from January to February, the infrastructure investment was 1.3 trillion, an increase of 8.6% year-on-year, and the growth rate increased significantly. Among them, the investment in power, transportation and public utilities was 0.21 trillion yuan, 0.48 trillion yuan and 0.57 trillion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 11.7%, 10.5% and 6.0% respectively. From January to February, the investment performance of the three sub projects was good, with a large year-on-year increase in power and transportation. The investment in public water conservancy also ended its continuous decline and ushered in growth.
Land transaction: from January to February, the land transaction area and transaction price of 100 cities decreased year-on-year, and the land supply area decreased year-on-year: from January to February, the planned land transaction area of 100 large and medium-sized cities totaled 150 million square meters, a decrease of 26.7% compared with the same period of last year; The average transaction floor price is 1386 yuan / square meter, with a decrease of 1273.5 yuan / square meter. The supply area is 200 million square meters, with a decrease of 20.3%; The unit price of the listed floor is 1880.5 yuan / square meter, which is basically the same as that in the same period last year. From January to February, the land transaction and supply area decreased, and the average floor price also decreased significantly. The overall performance of land transaction was poor.
Compared with the same period last month, the growth rate of real estate construction started and completed decreased by – 1.9% and – 2.2% respectively, with a year-on-year decrease of – 1.9% and – 1.2% respectively. The growth rate of new construction decreased by 19.0 PCT compared with December, mainly because most projects started construction at the beginning of the year; The completion growth rate dropped significantly compared with December, mainly because the beginning of the year was not the peak of completion, and real estate enterprises used limited funds for new projects.
Real estate sales: the year-on-year decline in sales volume from January to February narrowed, and the decline in sales price was obvious: the total sales area of commercial housing from January to February was 160 million square meters, with a decrease of 9.6%, which was 6.1pct narrower than that in December. From January to February, the average sales unit price of real estate was 9844.6 yuan / Ping, a year-on-year decrease of 10.7%, the largest year-on-year decrease since 2009. From January to February, the decline of commercial housing sales area narrowed, but the sales unit price decreased significantly, indicating that the current real estate sales situation is still poor, and the real estate easing policy needs to be further strengthened.
New orders signed: from January to February, the amount of new orders signed by the four central enterprises increased year-on-year: from January to February, China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) , Metallurgical Corporation Of China Ltd(601618) , China National Chemical Engineering Co.Ltd(601117) , Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) new orders signed by central enterprises increased by 6.7%, 14.6%, 87.5% and 1.7% respectively, and the amount of new orders signed by central enterprises increased steadily. From January to February, China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) new construction area, completed area and housing sales area were 3034, 2570 and 1.72 million square meters respectively, with year-on-year changes of – 39.8%, 16.1% and – 31.5% respectively.
Investment advice
Recommended capital construction sector and assembled design leader Shenzhen Capol International&Associatesco.Ltd(002949) .
Main risks of rating
Risk tip: manufacturing investment slows down, the promotion of prefabricated buildings is less than expected, and the industry policy risk.
