1) focus on the strategic value of battery recycling resources. We predict that the lithium carbonate generated by lithium battery recycling will contribute 31% to the demand for China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery lithium carbonate in 2025 and 41% by 20 In 2025, the metal nickel generated by lithium battery recycling will contribute 32% to the metal nickel demand of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery, which will increase to 72% by 2035. Renewable resources are expected to become an important channel to solve the contradiction between supply and demand and stabilize price expectations, with a prominent strategic position.
2) sort out the industrial capacity layout in detail and judge the time point of capacity supply and demand balance. Battery recycling and re growth cycle is booming, and all parties actively layout. We expect that there will be about 35% surplus in enterprise capacity in 2022. With the high increase of battery decommissioning, the supply and demand of capacity is expected to reverse in 2025.
3) judge the core competitiveness according to the essence of business model and the trend of industrial reform. The core competitiveness comes from technological advantages and channel advantages. Technological advantages run through the whole process of industrial development. Industrial reform contributes to the main increment of power batteries, and actively grasp the advantages of vehicle enterprises in power battery recycling channels.
4) the quantitative calculation of the model reveals the essence of the business model, the price impact is limited, the core barrier lies in technology and channels, and the growth space is huge. 1) In the synchronous fluctuation of income and cost, the profit margin can remain stable and enjoy stable remanufacturing profits. Core competitiveness comes from technology (lithium recovery rate increased by 5pct, gross profit rate increased by 1PCT) and channels (stable supply of waste batteries and reasonable discount coefficient); 2) Metal prices have limited impact. Resume the lithium carbonate Market in 2021. The price fluctuation is ± 10% and the gross profit margin is + 1.6pct / - 1.7pct. The fluctuation is controllable. If the metal price operates normally, the stability of profitability will be improved. Accelerate the turnover of the project, shorten the production and operation cycle, and further strengthen the stability of profitability.
Market space: the 15 year business cycle has increased by 18%, and retired power batteries have become the main increment of the industry. We estimate that the demand for lithium battery recycling in 2022 will be 83 GWH. Based on the 2022 / 2 / 9 metal price, the market space will be 35.1 billion yuan, 67.5 billion yuan / 138.7 billion yuan / 294.6 billion yuan in 2025 / 2030 / 2035 respectively, with a compound increase of 18% in the 15 years from 2020 to 2035. The contribution of decommissioned power battery market has increased year by year, becoming the active energy for industry growth.
Competition pattern: production capacity supply and demand will reverse in 2025, focusing on technical advantages and channel advantages. 1) The short-term surplus of production capacity will be reversed in 2025. Combing the white list of battery recycling enterprises of the Ministry of industry and information technology, we predict that the capacity supply in 2022 will be about 1.03 million tons / year of waste battery treatment capacity. We expect that the recycling demand of 83gwh in 2022 will be 35% surplus corresponding to the disposal demand of 670000 tons. Decommissioned batteries increased rapidly, and the supply and demand of production capacity reversed in three years. 2) Pay attention to technical advantages and channel advantages. The industry is market-oriented, with technical advantages throughout. Industrial reform, power batteries contribute to the main increment, and actively grasp the advantages of vehicle enterprises in power battery recycling channels.
Investment suggestion: key recommendation: Miracle Automation Engineering Co.Ltd(002009) : rapid expansion of production capacity, extending the industrial chain to the precursor, and actively binding the upstream vehicle channel. It is suggested to pay attention to: Guangdong Guanghua Sci-Tech Co.Ltd(002741) : the leader of PCB chemicals, and actively layout the lithium battery materials and lithium battery recycling industry chain Gem Co.Ltd(002340) : Recycling pioneer, layout battery recycling resources, lock and create precursor leader Zhejiang Narada Power Source Co.Ltd(300068) : leader in energy storage and lead regeneration. Lithium battery recovery phase I will be put into operation soon Wangneng Environment Co.Ltd(002034) : waste incineration assets are of high quality, and the layout of power battery regeneration; Fulongma: establish fulongma new energy and layout power battery recycling.
Risk tip: the installed capacity of lithium battery is less than expected, the recovery mode of power battery has changed significantly, the metal price has declined, and the industry competition has intensified
