The dual carbon vision promotes the development of the new energy market, and the small and beautiful industry is expected to grow at a high speed. With the emergence of the high-voltage trend of new energy vehicles and the gradual improvement of the requirements for current protection, fuses are expected to enjoy the high-speed development trend of both volume and price in the growth dividend of new energy vehicles: in terms of volume, the three major economies of China, the United States and Europe continue to make efforts, the global demand accelerates, and electric vehicles are expected to enter the era of tens of millions. In terms of price, compared with traditional cars, high-voltage overcurrent protection gives birth to a 10 fold increase in the value of single cars. In addition, under the dual carbon vision, the installed capacity of new energy continues to improve, and the fuse market is expected to increase rapidly. They predict that the scale of fuse market is expected to reach 9.44 billion yuan in 2025, of which the proportion of new energy field will reach 44.2%. Combined with the previous assumptions, we predict that the scale of fuse market is expected to reach 9.44 billion yuan in 2025, of which the proportion of new energy field will reach 44.2%, which is a large increase compared with 5.06 billion yuan and 12.5% in 2019.
Market pattern: international brands are still dominant, and Chinese enterprises are expected to grasp the first mover advantage and deeply cultivate the market segments. The market of fuse industry is relatively mature. At present, the main participants in the world are foreign manufacturers such as Littelfuse, Bussmann, mersen, PEC and SCHURTER. Chinese fuse manufacturers generally operate on a small scale, and only Hollyland (China) Electronics Technology Corp.Ltd(002729) , Xi’An Sinofuse Electric Co.Ltd(301031) and Shanghai Electric Appliance ceramic factory have a market revenue of more than 100 million yuan. Fuse is an important component of circuit safety. Customer stability + long certification cycle is an important entry barrier for new players. Chinese manufacturers ( Hollyland (China) Electronics Technology Corp.Ltd(002729) : China’s leading fuse in the field of electronics. At present, it has gradually transformed into the power field, and now it is equipped with leading companies such as Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) Shenzhen Hopewind Electric Co.Ltd(603063) and Xi’An Sinofuse Electric Co.Ltd(301031) : fuses in the field of deep ploughing new energy vehicles and new energy power generation, which have successively entered the supply chain of well-known downstream enterprises such as Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Tesla) It is expected to break through with the advantages of subdivided fields.
Investment suggestion: the new energy field will become the main driving force of the incremental fuse market, focusing on the leading Chinese manufacturers with first mover advantage and domestic substitution in the subdivided fields. We believe that fuse, as a small and beautiful market segment under the rapid development trend of new energy, is expected to continue to grow at a high speed. In 2025, China’s market share is expected to reach 9.5 billion yuan, cagr12%, and the market share in the field of new energy is expected to increase from 20% to 45%. With the rapid development of the market and the promotion of localization process, we believe that Chinese manufacturers with the advantages of technical reserves and customer expansion resources in new energy segments (electric vehicles and Fengguang storage) are expected to take advantage of double carbon Dongfeng to enjoy the dividend of first mover advantage in the blue ocean period of rapid market growth.
Risk tip: the production and sales of new energy vehicles are less than expected, the competition in the lithium battery industry is intensified, the raw material prices in the industrial chain fluctuate sharply, and the new energy vehicle policy is less than expected.
