\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Fountain Corporation(000005) 96 Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) )
Matters:
Announcement of the company: it is expected to achieve a total operating revenue of 13.271 billion yuan (+ 28.95%) and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.291 billion yuan (+ 23.54%) in 2021, deducting a net profit not attributable to the parent company of 2.201 billion yuan (+ 24.14%); It is estimated that the total operating revenue of 2021q4 is expected to be 3.169 billion yuan (+ 42.58%), the net profit attributable to the parent company is 322 million yuan (+ 1.66%), and the net profit not attributable to the parent company is deducted by 299 million yuan (+ 10.06%).
Guoxin Food & Beverage’s view: 1) the revenue in 2021q4 increased steadily, and the pre recognition of sales expenses dragged down the net interest rate; 2) The progress of payment collection in 2022 exceeds that of the same period in history, and the performance growth in the first quarter is highly deterministic; 3) Steady progress has been made in the nationalization and sub high-end strategy, and the profit margin is expected to gradually increase; 4) Investment suggestion: the company enjoys the secondary high-end capacity expansion bonus and can grow in the 14th Five Year Plan period. It is optimistic about the continuous upgrading of the company’s product structure and the accelerated expansion outside the province. It is estimated that the company’s operating revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 13.27/16.14/18.61 billion yuan, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 2.29/30.2/3.8 billion yuan, the corresponding diluted EPS will be 4.33/5.72/7.19 yuan, the corresponding PE of the current stock price will be 45 / 34 / 27x, and the “buy” rating will be maintained.
Comments:
In 2021q4, the revenue increased steadily, and the pre recognition of sales expenses dragged down the net interest rate
Since the fourth quarter of last year, the overall dynamic sales have continued to improve, boosting the steady growth of the company’s revenue. It is estimated that the net interest rate attributable to the parent company in 2021 is about 17.26% (-0.76pct); Among them, the net interest rate attributable to the parent company in 2021q4 is about 10.17% (-4.09pct). We expect that the decline in net interest rate is mainly due to more expenses, and some expenses such as Spring Festival Promotion in 2022 are confirmed in advance. On the whole, in 2021, we expect the steady growth of gu8 and below, and the growth of gu16 and above or about double. Considering that the dynamic sales performance of gu16 and above products of the company is good, the product structure continues to upgrade, and the net interest rate does not change the long-term growth trend. We expect that the net interest rate will pick up in 2022q1, the profit margin will maintain a steady upward trend throughout the year, and the profit growth rate will exceed the revenue growth rate.
The progress of payment collection in 2022 exceeds that of the same period in history, and the performance growth in the first quarter is highly deterministic
According to channel feedback, the progress of Spring Festival payment collection in 2022 is ahead of schedule (the overall proportion of payment collection is expected to be 40 ~ 50%, of which the progress of payment collection in Hefei is expected to be 50% +, which is about 45% higher than that in the same period of previous years). The performance of dynamic sales exceeded expectations, and there was a shortage of goods in some regions of the province, laying the foundation for the steady growth of performance in the first quarter. Since the Spring Festival, the overall price has remained stable. At present, the wholesale price of Gu 16 / Gu 20 is about 330 / 550 yuan, and the channel inventory remains benign.
The nationalization and sub high-end strategy are advancing steadily, and the profit margin is expected to increase gradually
The company has a solid position in the province and strongly leads the upgrading of sub high-end product structure. The proportion of products above Gu 8 has increased significantly, and the growth of Gu 16 and Gu 20 is strong. At present, GU20 has successfully occupied a favorable position in the province and achieved rapid volume expansion by taking the price of 600 yuan with the expansion of Dongfeng. The sales volume of GU20 will be nearly 2 billion yuan in 2021 and is expected to continue high growth in 2022. With the gradual spread of GU20 outside the province, it is expected to gradually realize the nationwide volume in the future. Relying on structural upgrading in the province, the company still has large room for growth. It is expected to accelerate the breakthrough outside the province and achieve the revenue target of 20 billion in 2024.
Investment suggestion: the company enjoys the secondary high-end expansion bonus, can grow in the 14th five year plan, and maintains the “buy” rating
We are optimistic about the continuous upgrading of the company’s product structure and the accelerated expansion outside the province. It is estimated that the company’s operating revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 13.27/16.14/18.61 billion yuan, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 2.29/30.2/3.8 billion yuan, the corresponding diluted EPS will be 4.33/5.72/7.19 yuan, and the corresponding PE of the current stock price will be 45 / 34 / 27x, maintaining the “buy in” rating.
Risk tips
The risk of macroeconomic fluctuation, the risk of large-scale recurrence of the epidemic, and the risk that the demand for high-end wine is lower than expected.
