Byd Company Limited(002594) (002594)
Event overview
On January 4, the company released the production and marketing express in December 2021. In December, the company wholesale sold 99112 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 76.0% and a month on month increase of + 0.8%. Among them, there were 93945 new energy vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 225.7% and a month on month increase of + 3.0%; 5167 fuel vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of – 81.2% and a month on month increase of – 27.4%. Meanwhile, the total installed capacity of the company’s new energy vehicle power battery and energy storage battery in December was about 5.049gwh, a year-on-year increase of + 144.3% and a month on month increase of + 3.4%.
Analysis and judgment:
The epidemic has disturbed the annual sales of new energy to a new high in the short term
Xi’an epidemic affected the release of production capacity in the current month, and the company’s sales volume was in line with expectations as a whole. In December, the sales volume of the company’s new energy passenger vehicles was 92823, with a year-on-year increase of + 236.4% and a month on month increase of + 3.0%, including 48317 pure electric vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 148.0% and a month on month increase of + 4.7%; 44506 mixed vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 448.6% and a month on month increase of + 1.2%. Xi’an was closed due to the epidemic on December 23. The company’s Xi’an plant mainly produces DM-I models, with a total capacity of 600000 vehicles in two phases. We expect to affect the wholesale of about 10000 vehicles in the current period.
Strong demand for new energy, the company’s annual sales reached a new high. In 2021, the company’s pure electric + plug-in hybrid two wheel drive, with a significant increase in sales. The sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles was 594000, a year-on-year increase of + 231.6%, the sales volume of pure electric vehicles was 321000, a year-on-year increase of + 144.9%, and the plug-in hybrid vehicles were 273000, a year-on-year increase of + 467.6%. DM-I broke through the bottleneck of fuel consumption on the premise of parity with fuel vehicles. After listing in 2021, the demand increased rapidly, and the sales volume continued to rise driven by the release of production capacity. The average monthly sales volume of 4q21 Qin plus DM-I climbed to 18000, and that of song DM reached 14000. It is expected that the sales volume will further increase under the subsequent production capacity improvement.
Positive structural changes, flagship models drive ASP upward
Flagship models continue to sell well, and the company’s product structure has undergone positive changes. In 2021, the flagship model Han continued to be popular, with a total of more than 117000 vehicles throughout the year, and the monthly sales volume still increased marginally. In December, Han EV 10301 and Han DM 3400. Tang DM-I is positioned as a 200000 class SUV. At present, it has ranked among the top three monthly sales of new energy SUVs with more than 200000.
The hot sales of Han and Tang Dynasties led the company’s ASP upward, and the passenger car unit price exceeded 150000 yuan. According to the company’s official account, the Byd Company Limited(002594) passenger car price exceeded 150 thousand yuan in 2021, ranking the first place in its own brand. Combined with our estimation, the passenger car 1h21 ASP is about 144000 yuan. The climbing of Tang DM-I and the continuous hot sales of Han have significantly driven the company’s ASP. Excluding the mask sales revenue in 2020, the change of structure makes the company’s ASP in a steady upward trend.
Platform capability continuous verification, vehicle introduction and accelerated realization
Continuous verification of the company’s platform capability. The company focuses on R & D and has a deep accumulation of platform technology. DM-I platform achieved a new breakthrough in power loss and fuel consumption, accelerated the replacement of fuel vehicles, and many models sold well to verify the platform ability. E platform 3.0 focuses on improving efficiency. Equipped with “black technology” such as eight in one electric powertrain and wide temperature range high-efficiency heat pump, it can improve the low-temperature endurance by up to 20%. The sales volume of dolphin, the first mass-produced model of the platform, has risen to more than 10000 in just four months. The company’s strategy of building fist products based on technology has been continuously recognized by the market.
The introduction of models accelerates the realization, and the annual DM-I is expected to reach 1 million. This year, DM-I models will continue to expand and accelerate the introduction of platform models. Song Pro DM-I was launched last month, and a variety of models of warship series will be launched soon. Other DM models will also be equipped with DM-I and inject new increment. We expect that the sales volume of DM-I in the whole year is expected to reach 1 million. The first pure electric SUV yuan plus of E platform 3.0 was also launched for pre-sale on New Year’s day this year, and a variety of models of Ocean series will also be listed. We believe that with the continuous output of the models of the two platforms, the company’s platform capability will quickly enter the harvest period from the verification period.
Investment advice
The company relies on DM-I and E3 0 two advanced technology platforms, the iteration speed of models and the probability of popular models have been significantly improved, and the inflection point of new production capacity and new models is imminent. At the same time, the company’s supply chain security capability has repeatedly been tested by industrial force majeure and successfully demonstrated strong stability, which can better cope with the tight supply of upstream components and batteries with the continuous listing of new models and the arrival of the peak season of the industry demand side. The company is facing the inflection point of sales growth. We keep the last profit forecast unchanged. It is estimated that the company’s revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 2292.3/2789.4/333.84 billion yuan, the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 5.07/81.1/11.96 billion yuan, the corresponding EPS will be 1.74/2.79/4.11 yuan, the corresponding closing price of 271 yuan / share on January 4, 2022, and the PE will be 156 / 97 / 66 times respectively, maintaining the overweight rating.
Risk statement
Capacity expansion is lower than expected; Downside risk of auto market; Sales of new models were lower than expected.
