\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 233 Guangdong Tapai Group Co.Ltd(002233) )
The company’s net profit attributable to the parent company in 21 years was 1.836 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.04%
The company released its annual report for 21 years. The annual revenue / net profit attributable to the parent company was 7.713/1.836 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.46% / 3.04%, and the net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent company was 1.604 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.66%. The non recurring profits and losses were mainly securities investment income and floating profit, And the investment income of trading financial assets (including other non current financial assets) during the holding period and the interest income obtained during the holding period of debt investment. Among them, Q4 achieved a revenue of 2.472 billion yuan in a single quarter, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 524 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.7%.
The sales volume of the main business increased slightly, and the regional demand is still resilient
The company sold 20 million tons of cement and clinker in 21 years, with a year-on-year increase of 0.9%. The average price per ton increased by 27.6 yuan year-on-year to 366 yuan / ton. Affected by the rise of coal price, the cost per ton increased by 26.3 yuan year-on-year to 228 yuan / ton, and finally realized a gross profit per ton of 138 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 1.3 yuan / ton. The company’s sales area is mainly concentrated in Guangdong. We expect that the cement demand in Guangdong will remain resilient in 2022. According to the Guangdong Development and Reform Commission, 1570 provincial key projects will be arranged in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 12.5%, a total investment of 7670 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, an annual planned investment of 900 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.5%, and infrastructure is expected to fill the demand gap. On the supply side, no new capacity is expected in Guangdong in 2022, but there is still capacity investment in Guangxi. The inflow of cement from other provinces may have a certain impact on the supply pattern of Guangdong. In terms of price, benefiting from the supply contraction caused by the tightening of peak shifting production, the price center is still expected to move up in 22 years. From the cost side, since this year, the national development and Reform Commission has repeatedly mentioned the guarantee of supply and stable price of coal. It is estimated that the cost side pressure in 22 years may be less than 21 last year. On the whole, we expect the company’s gross profit per ton in 22 years to pick up.
The decline of gross profit margin and the increase of expense rate in 21 years led to the decline of net profit margin and further improvement of capital structure. In 21 years, the overall gross profit margin of the company was 37.2%, down 2.44pct year-on-year, and the expense rate during the period was 8.2%, up + 0.8pct year-on-year, of which the management / R & D / financial expense rate was + 0.9 / + 0.1 / – 0.2pct year-on-year respectively, The increase in the management expense rate was mainly due to the increase in the amortization amount of the share based payment expenses and long-term deferred expenses of the employee stock ownership plan amortized during the reporting period and the increase in shutdown losses caused by dual control of energy consumption. Finally, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 23.8%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.5pct and a decline in profitability. The asset liability ratio at the end of the period was 15%, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.1pct, and the capital structure was further optimized.
The dividend yield highlights the investment value and maintains the “overweight” rating
The company expects cash dividends of 739 million yuan in 21 years and 262 million yuan in other ways (such as share repurchase). The total cash dividends are 1 billion yuan, accounting for 54% of the net profit attributable to the parent company. In recent years, the dividend rate is 50% – 60%. The dividend rate is at a high level of similar companies, and the investment value is prominent. In the next 22 years, the company will accelerate the green transformation, intelligent upgrading and standardization construction, continue to expand and strengthen the main cement industry, vigorously develop emerging industries, accelerate the construction of photovoltaic power generation and cement kiln collaborative disposal projects, maintain the 22-23 year net profit forecast of 2.09/2.26 billion yuan, and increase the 24-year forecast of 2.37 billion yuan. With reference to comparable companies, the company is approved to give the company 7 times PE in 22 years, The target price is 12.25 yuan, maintaining the “overweight” rating.
Risk tips: cement demand is less than expected, price rise in peak season is less than expected, coal cost rise, etc
