\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 233 Guangdong Tapai Group Co.Ltd(002233) )
Event: Guangdong Tapai Group Co.Ltd(002233) released the annual report of 2021. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 7.71 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 9.5%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.84 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 3.0%; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of RMB 1.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of - 1.7%; The net cash flow from operating activities was 2.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 9.2%. The operating revenue in the fourth quarter was 2.47 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 4.2%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 520 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 29.6%; Deducting the net profit not attributable to the parent company of 460 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 21.0%.
Revenue side: the release of production capacity contributed to the small growth of sales volume, and the power and production restriction promoted the significant increase of ton price.
In terms of sales volume, the company's cement sales volume was 1978.9 million tons in 21 years, with a year-on-year increase of + 3.0%. In 21 years, the cement output of Guangdong was 170 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of - 0.4%. The company achieved a small increase in sales volume under the background of the decline of Guangdong output, mainly due to the full release of the second-line capacity of Wenfu 10000 ton line project. The cement sales volume in the fourth quarter was 5.201 million tons, with a year-on-year decrease of - 25.7%. On the one hand, the double control of energy consumption and power restriction still had an impact in October, on the other hand, the Q4 real estate investment continued to slow down, and the slow construction progress affected the cement demand. The company plans to produce and sell 20.8 million tons of cement in 22 years, which is expected to be + 5.1% year-on-year. We believe that the dual control policy of energy consumption in 22 years is more stable than "one size fits all". Under the steady growth, the role of infrastructure in driving demand is prominent, and the company's cement sales may be expected to achieve the growth target.
In terms of price: the price per ton of cement of the company in 21 years was 366.7 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of + 27.3 yuan. We estimate that the ton price of cement of 21q4 company is about 450 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of more than + 100 yuan. Throughout the year, the cement price showed the trend of "restraining first and then increasing". The sharp rise in the price was concentrated after September. The peak season + energy consumption double control led to the sharp rise in the price of cement in South China. By mid October, the average price of cement in South China reached 727 yuan / ton (week on week + 33 yuan, year-on-year + 263 yuan). Subsequently, the price fell back, but the price was still high in the second half of the year, which promoted the company's annual and Q4 cement prices to increase significantly. As of March 11, 2003, the average price of cement in South China was 510 yuan / ton (unchanged on a weekly basis, with a year-on-year increase of + 33 yuan). Recently, the cement market demand has gradually recovered, and the annual demand has maintained a high platform + stronger willingness to supply coordination. The coal price is still rising, and the cement price center in 22 years is expected to remain at a high level in recent years.
Profit side: Q4 profit is repaired, and the gross profit per ton in 22 years is expected to continue to improve.
Cost per ton & gross profit per ton: in the past 21 years, the company's cost per ton was 227.6 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 25.6 yuan, and gross profit per ton was 139.1 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.7 yuan. We believe that the slight year-on-year increase in annual gross profit per ton is mainly due to the high year-on-year Q4 price, the gradual decline of coal price and the hedging of cost side pressure. Fujian Jinwang photovoltaic power generation Co., Ltd. is expected to complete the construction of 10MW grid connected power generation project in the near future, but the price of 10MW grid connected power generation project is expected to be improved. It is expected that Fujian Jinwang photovoltaic power generation Co., Ltd. will continue to be affected by the completion of 10MW grid connected power generation project in the near future.
The company's long-term share holding expenses + 1.7% year-on-year amortization of the company's planned downtime and management expenses + 1.7% due to the company's long-term share holding expenses + 1.7% year-on-year amortization rate of 2029t, which is mainly caused by the company's long-term share holding expenses + 1.7% year-on-year increase of the company's planned downtime and management expenses. In 2021, the company's net profit attributable to the parent company was 92.8 yuan / ton, basically unchanged year-on-year. On the one hand, the annual performance growth benefited from the increase in volume offsetting part of the impact of rising costs. On the other hand, it benefited from the year-on-year increase in securities investment and financial management income during the reporting period, which thickened profits.
Repurchase demonstrates the company's long-term confidence, and employee stock ownership shares development dividends. On March 14, the company announced that it plans to repurchase 16-32 million shares of the company with its own funds of 200400 million yuan, accounting for about 1.3% - 2.7% of the total share capital. The repurchase price does not exceed 12.5 yuan / share. The repurchased shares are intended to be used to implement the employee stock ownership plan. We believe that this repurchase reflects the company's confidence in its long-term development, is conducive to safeguarding the interests of investors and creating conditions for investors to obtain sustained and stable returns. In addition, the company issued the fifth employee stock ownership plan on the same day. The fund comes from the net annual incentive bonus. The higher the net profit in 22 years, the higher the proportion of incentive bonus withdrawn, and the greater the price discount of stock repurchased. The participants are expected to be about 1300, accounting for nearly 50% of the number of employees, with a lock-in period of 12 months. We believe that this plan is conducive to establishing a long-term incentive mechanism, mobilizing the enthusiasm of managers and employees, and jointly promoting the long-term and steady development of the company.
Investment suggestion: Guangdong Tapai Group Co.Ltd(002233) is the leading cement producer in eastern Guangdong, and its regional competitiveness continues to increase. The company has a complete industrial chain, reasonable production capacity layout and strong resource endowment. It occupies a strong position through high market share in a relatively closed regional market. The company has long attached importance to the improvement of cement process, with advanced production line, large monomer scale and excellent operation efficiency. The sales mode is combined with regional infrastructure and rural areas, and the ton sales cost is low. Benefiting from the long-term demand support of the construction of Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao Great Bay area and the supply side contraction expectation under the pressure of environmental protection, the company's long-term performance is expected to achieve steady growth. In addition, the company's photovoltaic power generation projects are advancing in an orderly manner as planned. Some projects have been completed and connected to the grid, which is expected to reduce energy consumption and carbon emissions and further enhance the core competitiveness of the company's main business under the background of the dual carbon policy.
Profit forecast: the dividend rate of the company has remained above 50% in recent years and 5.9% in 2021, which is at a high level in the industry and has high investment value. Based on the annual report released by the company, the net profit attributable to the parent company for 21 years is 1.84 billion yuan. Combined with the current industry supply and demand and cement price / cost, we adjust and update the profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2022 and 2023 will be 1.91 billion yuan and 2.0 billion yuan respectively (the previous forecast is 1.94 billion yuan and 2.03 billion yuan respectively); The current share price corresponding to PE is 7 and 6 times respectively, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Risk warning: macro demand is less than expected; Regional supply increased more than expected; The intensity of production restriction exceeded expectations; Substantial increase in costs; The public materials used in the research report may have the risk of information lag or untimely update.
