\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 702 Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) )
The company's revenue increased by 80% in the first quarter. On March 16, 2022, the company issued a pre increase announcement for the first quarter. It is expected that the operating revenue of the company in the first quarter of 2022 will increase by about 80% over the same period of the previous year. It is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent company in the first quarter of 2022 will be 460560 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 52% - 85%. The company continued to promote the "old wine strategy", further recognized the quality of old wine, actively arranged the peak season of the Spring Festival, and successfully achieved a "good start".
Brand nationwide layout, "shede" and "Tuopai" two wheel drive. In the first quarter of 2022, the company's revenue continued to grow rapidly, mainly because the company benefited from Tuopai shede famous wine gene and old wine strategy to meet the consumer demand of "drinking less and drinking better". Driven by the two wheels of "shede" and "Tuopai", the company achieved rapid growth in sales scale in the process of national expansion. Focusing on the strategy of "focusing on Sichuan, Hebei, Shandong and Henan, improving the northeast and northwest, and breaking through the East and South China", the company has accelerated the national layout of the brand. At present, the company's traditional strong markets, such as Sichuan, Shandong and northeast, have benign increment, stable price and reasonable inventory. Since 2021, the company has further tilted its resources to the East and South China markets with large secondary high-end capacity. At present, it has been around Taihu Lake Hunan and other regions have established a number of model cities. In the first three quarters of 2021, 416 dealers were added (883 new dealers were added in the first three quarters, 467 were withdrawn, some illegal dealers were dismissed and the quality of dealer team was improved). It is expected that the nationwide expansion will continue in 2022.
Perfect product matrix and strengthen channel thrust. At present, the company has formed a series of old wine collections with a price of 1000 yuan, a price of 8001000 yuan, a price of 600 yuan for wisdom, 500 yuan for crystal, 400 yuan for taste, 200 yuan for the way, and a product matrix of 50-80 yuan for six grains and T68. Among them, taste is the core single product of the company. In 2020, the company will adjust the market of taste through measures such as quantity control and price protection, The price has increased from about 280 yuan to more than 350 yuan, the channel profit has recovered significantly, the market dynamic sales have rebounded and the terminal inventory has decreased. It is expected that the taste willing will continue to grow rapidly in 2022. Tuopai liuliang and T68 conform to the industry trend of rapid development of light bottle wine with high price below 100 yuan. Driven by high channel profits, the company's Tuopai series products are also expected to maintain rapid growth.
Investment suggestion: the company's performance in the first quarter continued to grow rapidly. We believe that the trend of industrial structural expansion in 2022 remains unchanged. The company adheres to the "old wine strategy". The reserves of high-quality old wine exceeding 120000 tons are a strong guarantee. The hot sauce wine accelerates the maturity of the price range of Lihe Technology (Hunan) Co.Ltd(300800) yuan. It is expected that the volume increase brought by the expansion of the price range + the rapid national layout will continue. Based on the performance forecast of the first quarter, We expect the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2022 / 2023 to be 1.8/2.4 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to EPS of 5.43/7.21 yuan respectively, and the current share price corresponding to PE of 32 / 24 times respectively, maintaining the "recommended" rating.
Risk tip: the epidemic repeatedly affects consumer demand, resulting in lower prices and inventories of leading products than expected; The macro-economy is less than expected, resulting in lower than expected demand for secondary high-end prices; Intensified market competition causes the company's sales progress to be lower than expected; Food safety accidents, etc.
