\u3000\u3 Bohai Water Industry Co.Ltd(000605) 116 Aurisco Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(605116) )
Event: the company announced that it plans to invest with its own capital of 638 million yuan in the production line project with an annual output of 308 tons of characteristic APIs and 200 million anti-tumor preparations.
Expand production capacity, enrich product lines and continuously improve competitiveness. The investment project includes 7 APIs and 4 preparation products. The 7 APIs are betahistine besylate (5 tons / year, construction scale, the same below), irulinastatin tartaric acid (0.5 tons / year), vilanterol (0.2 tons / year), Wudi bromine ammonia (0.2 tons / year), fluticasone furoate (1 ton / year), halobetamethasone propionate (0.5 tons / year) Pregabalin (300 tons / year), four preparations are abiraterone acetate tablets (30 million tablets / year), enzalutamide tablets (50 million tablets / year), apartamide tablets (40 million tablets / year) and ibutinib capsules (80 million tablets / year), involving drugs in respiratory system, nervous system, anti-inflammatory, anti-tumor and other fields. While the company's investment project expands production capacity, it further enriches the product line and enhances the cdmo service capacity. We believe that this investment is the strategic embodiment of the company's characteristic layout of varieties and continuously deepening the integrated industrial chain of API preparations, which will further enhance the company's comprehensive competitiveness after its completion.
The first imitation of the heavy variety of didroxyprogesterone tablets in China is about to appear on the market, which is expected to continue to drive performance growth. The company's heavyweight product, didroxyprogesterone tablets (unilateral), has been reported to CDE for approval and is expected to be the first imitation listed in China this year. The compound preparation is expected to be submitted for approval next year. Didroxyprogesterone is an integrated variety of API preparation of the company, with a good competition pattern. At present, only Abbott and Aurisco Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(605116) have the ability of commercial production of API. With the advantage of API preparation integration, the company is expected to share a huge market with the original research. Since the trial production of Yangzhou Aurisco Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(605116) 2021q1, the company's didroxyprogesterone API has maintained a rapid and large-scale trend. With the listing of follow-up preparations, we expect to continue to drive the growth of performance.
The company is optimistic about the continuous growth of the company. The company has been deeply engaged in the industry for many years. With differentiated positioning and continuous technological innovation, the company has earlier cut into the supply chain system of large international well-known pharmaceutical enterprises such as GSK, Sanofi and Teva, established long-term good cooperative relations and continued to explore. The company's existing key varieties have been developed one after another, and the reserves of subsequent projects are sufficient. With the gradual production capacity of raising and investment, and the active layout in the fields of preparations, peptides, small nucleic acid drugs cro / cdmo, it is expected to continue to open up growth space.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: according to the company's third quarterly report and operating conditions, we adjusted the profit forecast. It is estimated that the company's revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 819, 1143 and 1471 million yuan (819, 902 and 1113 million yuan before adjustment), with a year-on-year increase of 13.6%, 39.5% and 28.7%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 173, 236 and 312 million yuan (185, 216 and 278 million yuan before adjustment), with a year-on-year increase of 10.2%, 36.4% and 32.1%. At present, the company's share price corresponds to 66 / 48 / 36 times PE in 2021 / 2022 / 2023. Considering the solid technology of the company, the continuous development of key varieties, the declared large varieties have broad market prospects, rich reserve projects, long-term thickening performance of raising investment and expanding production capacity, and actively extend to the cro / cdmo field of preparations, polypeptides and small nucleic acid drugs, so as to open up growth space and maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk prompt event: risk of new product and new process development; International trade environment change risk; Environmental protection and safety production risks; Exchange rate fluctuation risk; There is a risk that the public information is delayed or not updated in time.
