\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 589 Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) )
Matters:
The company's announcement: in 2021, it is expected to achieve a total operating revenue of 5.029 billion yuan (+ 25.37%), a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.727 billion yuan (+ 35.37%), and a net profit not attributable to the parent company of 1.484 billion yuan (+ 19.45%). The increase in revenue and profit is mainly due to the increase in the sales revenue of high-end products.
Guoxin Food & Beverage's view: 1) in 2021q4, the revenue growth slowed down slightly due to price control, and the cost investment dragged down short-term profits; 2) 2022 has a sound start, and marketing reform is expected to further give birth to potential energy; 3) Investment suggestion: optimistic about the company's marketing reform and the release of dividends to boost the steady growth of performance. As one of the leading brands of Huijiu liquor, the company has a deep foundation in brand and channel. It is expected to continue to benefit from the upgrading of consumption in the province, drive the continuous optimization of product structure, and accelerate the growth of performance under the promotion of marketing reform. It is estimated that the operating revenue of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be 5.03/61.0/7.13 billion yuan, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 1.73/20.7/2.46 billion yuan, the corresponding diluted EPS will be 2.88/3.44/4.10 yuan, and the corresponding current share price PE will be 23 / 19 / 16x, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Comments:
In 2021q4, the growth of revenue slowed down slightly, and the investment of expenses dragged down short-term profits
It is estimated that in 2021q4, the total operating revenue of the company is expected to be 1.4 billion yuan (+ 5.72%), the net profit attributable to the parent company is 577 million yuan (+ 39.93%), and the non net profit deducted is 378 million yuan (- 5.50%); In 2021, the net interest rate of the company was 34.34% (+ 2.54pct), and the net interest rate deducted was 29.51% (- 2.33pct); The net interest rate of 2021q4 is 41.20% (+ 10.07pct), and the net interest rate deducted is 27.03% (-3.21pct). In 2021q4, the income is temporarily under pressure due to the strong price control in 10 years; The higher growth rate of net profit is mainly due to the large amount of non recurring profits and losses. The company recognized the income from land disposal in 2021q4 due to leaving the city and entering the district; The short-term decline in net profit after deducting non net profit is expected to be mainly due to the company's promotion of marketing reform and the increase of expenses.
2022 has a sound start, and marketing reform is expected to further give birth to potential energy
During the Spring Festival in 2022, the company benefited from the strong festival atmosphere in Anhui market, the smooth progress of payment collection and the good performance of mobile sales. At present, the disturbance of Anhui epidemic is relatively small, the market consumption confidence is sufficient and the consumption base toughness is still strong. We expect the performance in the first quarter to maintain steady growth. In recent years, under the background of consumption upgrading in the province, the company has strengthened the promotion and assessment of high-grade wine. The proportion of products with more than 200 yuan such as kouzi for 10 years has gradually increased. The price of 518 card slot with 500 yuan of double fragrance also has a good performance, and has gradually become a new growth pole. The company has obvious brand and channel advantages in the province, and there are still a large number of loyal consumers. With the gradual deepening of marketing reform, it is expected to follow the upgrading and expansion trend of the sub high-end price belt in the province in the future and continue to maintain steady development.
Investment suggestion: optimistic about the release of dividends from the company's marketing reform, boost the steady growth of performance and maintain the "buy" rating
As one of the leading brands of Huijiu liquor, the company has a deep foundation in brand and channel. It is expected to continue to benefit from the upgrading of consumption in the province, drive the continuous optimization of product structure, and accelerate the growth of performance under the promotion of marketing reform. It is estimated that the operating revenue of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be 5.03/61.0/7.13 billion yuan, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 1.73/20.7/2.46 billion yuan, the corresponding diluted EPS will be 2.88/3.44/4.10 yuan, and the corresponding current share price PE will be 23 / 19 / 16x, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
The risk of macroeconomic fluctuation, the risk of large-scale recurrence of the epidemic, and the upgrading of product structure is less than expected.
