\u3000\u30003 Dehua Tb New Decoration Material Co.Ltd(002043) 00204)
Track Excellence: covid-19 has made waves again in the world, with a total of more than 450 million patients, and the elderly and patients with basic diseases are at high risk of severe diseases; The company has found a new way in the immune path, and covid-19 severe complement inhibitor has taken the lead in research and development. The company’s traditional products are nerve growth factor and polyethylene glycol powder products with annual sales of hundreds of millions of yuan, and the adjustment of medical insurance is under pressure; In recent years, it has continued to use drugs in the field of immunity. Immune storm suppression drugs for severe patients with covid-19 are scarce in the world, and the company is in a relatively leading position.
C519-vid is an ideal clinical target to block the activation of complement in severe cases. Complement system is a part of human innate immune system; Complement molecule C5a is located in the important position of complement cascade transmission. Inhibition of it can block the occurrence of inflammatory cascade and control the inflammatory process. At present, the company has three immunosuppressive drugs under development for severe patients with covid-19. ① bdb-001 is an IgG4 chimeric antibody against C5a. The company has Chinese interests and is now in clinical phase II / III; ② Stsa-1002 is an anti-C5a IgG1 all human monoclonal antibody. The company has self-developed and global interests. It is currently in phase I in China and the United States; ③ Stat-1005 is an IgG4 monoclonal antibody targeting GM-CSF. It was approved by FDA in September 2021. Bdb-001 also has research and development for new indications, such as suppurative sweat gland inflammation and ANCA related vasculitis.
Relay of new and old varieties and continuous growth: new development of old varieties and continuous development of nerve growth factors; Small nucleic acid drugs are prospectively distributed and innovation continues. For sale of products, mouse nerve growth factor Su Taisheng, based on the original treatment of optic nerve injury, develops new indications for diabetic foot. Nerve growth factor can accelerate the repair of nerve injury, improve blood circulation and promote ulcer healing. The small nucleic acid drug STSG-0002 aims at hepatitis B virus research and development, take the recombinant adeno-associated virus rAAV as the carrier, the delivery system is relatively stable. The results of preclinical study show that stsg-002 is better than entecavir in reducing HBV related antigen. At present, the first phase of clinical progress is smooth.
Profit forecast
We expect that the future revenue of the company will mainly come from the on-the-spot products of Su Tisheng, shutaiqing and the listing and sales of covid-19 drugs around the end of 2022. It is estimated that the sales revenue of 21 / 22 / 23 will be RMB 553 / 690 / 1311 million, with a year-on-year increase of 30% / 25% / 90%; The net profit attributable to the parent company is -151 / – 118 / 07 million yuan.
Valuation and investment advice
We use DCF method and market to sales ratio method to evaluate the company and carefully select the intermediate value. The reasonable market value of the company from June to December is 13.368 billion yuan, corresponding to the target price of 28.09 yuan, and give the rating of “overweight”.
Risk tips
Risks such as less than expected R & D progress, intensified market competition, shortage of R & D funds and reduction of holdings by directors, supervisors and senior managers.
