\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 862 Avic Aviation High-Technology Co.Ltd(600862) )
The performance in 2021 is lower than expected, and it is expected to grow steadily in 2022
1) performance in 2021: in 2021, the revenue was 3.8 billion (+ 31%), the net profit attributable to the parent was 590 million (+ 37%), and the net profit not attributable to the parent was 550 million (+ 49%). AVIC composite materials alone: in 2021, the revenue was 3.6 billion (+ 33%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 680 million (+ 38%). The company's performance is still mainly contributed by AVIC composite materials.
2) completion of business objectives: the target completion rate of revenue in 2021 is 100%, and the target completion rate of total profit is 97%. Compared with the actual completed amount in 2021, the revenue target in 2022 will increase by 18% and the total profit target will increase by 25%.
3) profitability: the gross profit margin in 2021 is the same as that in 2020, and the scale effect remains to be seen. The net interest rate / non net interest rate increased by 1 percentage point compared with 2020, partially benefiting from the significant decline in the rate of administrative expenses. In addition, the company's R & D expense rate increased, mainly due to the increase of R & D projects and project carry forward of the parent company, as well as the increase of R & D expenses of composite materials in aviation industry.
The delivery of related sales goods in 2021 is lower than expected, which is related to the rhythm of customer demand
1) the change of customer's product demand rhythm causes the actual amount of related sales to be lower than expected: the estimated amount of related sales of goods at the beginning of the year in 2021 is 3.5 billion, and the actual implementation amount is 2.8 billion, accounting for 79% of the expected proportion, which is significantly lower than the average value of 91% in the previous four years, mainly due to the change of product demand rhythm of some customers.
2) connected sales will grow rapidly in 2022: the estimated amount of connected sales in 2022 will be 3.8 billion, an increase of 37% compared with the actual amount of 2.8 billion in 2021.
The company will benefit significantly from the sustained and high growth of the co driven carbon fiber composite industry in the military and civil market
1) military: there is a large gap in the number of military aircraft between China and the United States. The proportion of composite materials used in advanced fighters continues to increase, and the proportion of composite materials used in fighter aircraft has increased from less than 10% of the second-generation aircraft to more than 30% of the fourth-generation aircraft.
2) civil: the proportion of composite materials for narrow body passenger aircraft is close to 20%, and the proportion of composite materials for wide body passenger aircraft can reach more than 50%. COMAC predicts an increase of 8725 Chinese passenger planes by 2039. Corresponding to the vast market space of prepreg. The company is expected to participate with the help of C919.
3) the company will significantly benefit from industry growth based on the card effect. Superimposed on the reform of state-owned enterprises, "improve the efficiency of state-owned capital", encourage medium and long-term incentives, and continuously improve the asset securitization rate, the company is also expected to benefit.
Avic Aviation High-Technology Co.Ltd(600862) : the compound growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be about 37% in the next three years
It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 840 / 11.1 / 1.51 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 43% / 31% / 37%, a compound growth rate of about 37%, EPS of RMB 0.61/0.79/1.09, PE of 38 / 29 / 21 times, and the PE center of the company in recent five years is 63 times, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips: 1) price fluctuation leads to the decline of profitability; 2) The delivery of large-scale orders for equipment during the 14th five year plan was less than expected; 3) The progress of relevant reform measures was less than expected.
