\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 531 Titan Wind Energy (Suzhou) Co.Ltd(002531) )
Event overview: today, the company issued two announcements: as the main investor of Shayang wind power equipment Industrial Park project, the company has won the construction index of 600MW new energy project awarded by Hubei provincial government. The wind power project should be approved before the end of 2022 and connected to the grid before the end of 2024; The company signed the strategic cooperation agreement with Zhejiang Windey Co.Ltd(300772) and Zhejiang Windey Co.Ltd(300772) became the enterprise of phase III wind power host project of Puyang Tianshun wind power equipment manufacturing industrial park. It plans to invest and build an annual output of 1GW host capacity.
Industry: growth path, value revaluation. From the perspective of the wind power industry, Lufeng took the lead in benefiting from large-scale cost reduction, and the bidding price and bidding volume exceeded expectations; According to statistics, since the beginning of 2022, the bidding volume of land wind host is about 13GW; From the perspective of bidding price, it basically falls within the range of 20 Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) yuan / kW; Lufeng’s large-scale acceleration took the lead in opening up the growth space of the industry. The annual public bidding volume in 21 years may exceed 60GW, which corresponds to the growth of installed capacity in 22 years. In the long run, the sea breeze has sufficient exploitable resources, and the trend of large-scale, large-scale and far-reaching sea breeze is clear; In the medium term, the planning volume of major provinces has been announced, and the sea breeze planning is about 60GW; In the short term, considering the parity progress / bidding situation, we believe that Haifeng can be compared with the photovoltaic before parity. From the current bidding price, the host with the largest proportion has contributed about 3000 yuan / kW. Considering the decline of construction and installation cost after rush installation, low-cost Haifeng is expected to start the high peak of installation in 23 years.
Business: the blueprint of “equipment + zero carbon” is gradually unfolding, and the wind power leader will win thousands of miles. On the equipment side, the main business of the company’s onshore tower has developed steadily. At present, the tower production base has radiated to the “Three North” region and the Yangtze River Delta. By the end of September 2021, the annual capacity of onshore tower is about 700000 tons, and the company expects to reach 1.2 million tons by the end of 2022; At the same time, the company actively distributes offshore engineering. The company expects to form a production capacity of Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) tons / year in Sheyang + Germany in early 2023, and will seek layout in Fujian, Jiangsu and other places in the future. On the business side of new energy assets, the company actively explores the “asset light” mode. On the one hand, the construction of the company’s power station continues to advance. The 500MW wind power project in Xinghe County, Ulanqab city has recently started the procurement of unit towers; On the other hand, the company continues to invest resources prospectively for resource development and project approval in key areas. At present, it has a certain scale of resources and project reserves. “Equipment + zero carbon” two wheel drive, the capacity digestion and order price of the company’s tower, blade and other manufacturing sectors may have a good synergistic effect with the zero carbon business sector in the future.
The release of employee stock ownership shows confidence and seeks win-win results. On March 2, the company disclosed the second phase of the employee stock ownership plan, with a total amount of no more than 250 million yuan, which is mainly for senior executives, technical backbones and business backbones, with a total number of no more than 150 people. The launch of the employee stock ownership plan in the current position not only shows the company’s confidence in future business development, but also establishes an organizational mechanism for creating a win-win situation, which is conducive to further enhancing the attractiveness and cohesion of the company.
Investment suggestion: we expect the company’s revenue from 2021 to 2023 to be 9.105 billion yuan, 12.095 billion yuan and 16.572 billion yuan respectively, with a growth rate of 12% / 33% / 37%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.351 billion yuan, 1.626 billion yuan and 2.22 billion yuan respectively, with a growth rate of 29% / 20% / 37%, corresponding to 20x / 16x / 12x PE in 21-23 years, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk tip: the speed of capacity expansion is lower than expected; Downstream demand was lower than expected.
