Lier Chemical Co.Ltd(002258) (002258)
Conclusions and recommendations:
Event: the company released the performance forecast for 21 years. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 1-1.08 billion yuan in 21 years, yoy + 63-76%. From the perspective of Q4, the revenue in a single quarter is expected to be 388-468 million yuan, yoy + 99-140%, QoQ + 264-339%, and the performance growth exceeds the expectation. In 2021, the company actively overcame the impact of adverse factors such as shutdown of main bases and supply chain fluctuation, the volume and price of main products increased, and the company's performance improved significantly. Glufosinate has great development potential in the future, and the company's performance growth is guaranteed. It is rated as "interval operation".
The volume and price of glyphosate increased simultaneously, and the company's profit increased: in 21 years, the company's main product glyphosate maintained a high gas state throughout the year, and the price increased sharply. In 21 years, the average price of glyphosate reached 244000 yuan / ton, yoy + 38%. The company's production expansion coincided with the time. 10000 tons of glufosinate in Guang'an base gradually released its production capacity. The company enjoyed the dividend of both volume and price, and the profit was thickened.
The boom of glufosinate continues and the development potential is huge: the price of glufosinate has been consolidated recently. However, considering that spring ploughing is coming, the downstream demand is gradually improving, and the price rise of global crops such as grain, it is expected that the outlook of glufosinate will continue to be high. In the long run, with the combined use of glyphosate and glufosinate and the prohibition of paraquat, the demand for glufosinate is expected to continue to grow, and the follow-up development potential is huge.
Expand production, innovate and consolidate the leading position: in the past 21 years, the production capacity of glufosinate in Guang'an base of the company was gradually released, superimposed with the supporting capacity of self built intermediate MDP, greatly reducing production costs and consolidating the leading position of the company. In addition, the company also arranged l-glufosinate in advance and built a production capacity of 20000 tons of l-glufosinate in Mianyang base, occupying the first mover advantage in the industry. L-glufosinate has good effect, high threshold for mass production, and has the advantage of moat. In addition, the company has further cooperated with kedihua to set up Guang'an Lihua. At present, the project of 10000 tons of methyl chlorofluoropyroxyacetate and 20000 tons of Chloropyridine intermediate has been subject to environmental impact assessment, which will further improve the production capacity of Chloropyridine intermediate and technical drug, and provide a driving force for the long-term development of the company.
Profit forecast: the prosperity of glyphosate is expected to be maintained. We revised the profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit of the company in the year 21 / 22 / 23 is RMB 1.03/11.5/1.29 billion, yoy + 68% / + 12% / + 12%, and the corresponding EPS is RMB 1.96/2.19/2.45. At present, the PE corresponding to the share price of A-Shares is 17 / 15 / 14 times, which is rated as "interval operation".
Risk tips: 1. The product price is lower than expected; 2. The new project is not put into operation as expected.
