Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) (600519)
Performance summary:
The company predicted that the total operating revenue of the whole year was 109 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11.2%, and the net profit was about 52 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11.3%. Based on this calculation, 4q achieved a total operating revenue of about 32 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12.7%, and recorded a net profit of 14.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.4%. The annual performance was in line with expectations and successfully completed the objectives set at the beginning of the year. In addition, 56500 tons of Maotai base liquor and 28200 tons of series base liquor were produced throughout the year.
The annual revenue of Maotai liquor was 93.2 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 10%, and the revenue of series liquor was 12.6 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 26%. According to the announcement calculation, the revenue of 4q Maotai liquor in a single quarter was about 28.2 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 14.3%, which was significantly higher than that in previous quarters. We believe that it is mainly due to the continuous increase of pumao and non-standard emission in peak seasons and the proportion of direct sales channels. It is expected that the proportion of direct sales in the whole year will; The revenue of series wine list in the quarter was about 3.06 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, and the annual targets were successfully achieved.
Under the leadership of the marketing reform of the new management, the current market price of Maotai bulk parts has rebounded to about 2700 yuan / bottle. After the "unpacking order" was completely cancelled, the price of a single bottle of the whole box has dropped to about 3250 yuan, and the price difference has narrowed. Since the end of the year, the market has high expectations for the price increase of Maotai liquor, but there is no official price increase at present. At the beginning of the new year, the retail guide prices of Maotai new rare wine and aged wine 15 were increased, of which the new rare wine increased by 4599 yuan / bottle from 4499 yuan / bottle, and aged wine 15 increased from 4999 yuan / bottle to 5999 yuan / bottle. It is regarded as a test of market response in the industry. On the other hand, it is also a measure of Maotai to strengthen the high-end product matrix, enhance the brand value and adjust the product structure, It is expected that the follow-up company will continue to carry out marketing reform, further sort out the relationship between products and channels, and the direct sales channel is expected to be further expanded.
We expect that the company will continue to grow steadily in 2022 without price increase, and the price increase of non-standard products and the continuous volume of direct sales channels will bring performance increment. In terms of production capacity, in 2021, the output of Maotai base liquor was exceeded (the target set at the beginning of the year was 55300 tons). With the completion of technical transformation in the future, the production capacity of series liquor is expected to continue to expand. With reference to the output of base liquor in previous years, the bottleneck of Maotai liquor output will be alleviated in the future.
It is estimated that from 2021 to 2023, the net profits will reach 52 billion, 58.8 billion and 66.2 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 11.3%, 13.1% and 12.4% respectively. The EPS will be 41.39 yuan, 46.81 yuan and 52.62 yuan respectively. The current share price corresponds to 50 times, 44 times and 39 times of PE respectively. It is suggested to "interval operation" investment.
Risk tip: the epidemic impact is repeated, and the marketing reform is less than expected
