\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 008 Beijing Capital Eco-Environment Protection Group Co.Ltd(600008) )
Take water and solid as the wheel, lead comprehensive development, and "ecology +" enhance business synergy. The company started with water affairs and continuously expanded its business scope, forming four parts: urban water affairs, solid waste business, comprehensive treatment of ecological environment and green resource management. The company's revenue mainly comes from the two parts of water and solid, and its performance is growing rapidly. From 2016 to 2020, the compound growth rate of the company's operating revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company was more than 24%. In 2021, the company put forward the "ecological +" strategy, acquired the first atmosphere, completed the strategic layout of "water, solid, gas and energy", and promoted the development of comprehensive performance by enhancing business synergy.
Operation efficiency, escort water continued to grow.
The collection rate drives the growth of water volume, and the operation enlarges the incremental income of volume price. The 14th five year plan takes the improvement of sewage collection rate as the planning and development goal for the first time, which has become another driving force for the improvement of sewage treatment capacity. During the 13th Five Year Plan period, the company's sewage treatment capacity and price increased simultaneously, the operation improved, the control cost further enlarged the income, the compound growth rate of sewage treatment revenue reached 33.8%, the gross profit margin rebounded rapidly, and the future growth can be expected.
The water supply market tends to be saturated, and the water price reform highlights the operational value. In the context of market saturation, the company's water supply business focuses on the improvement of operation, the gap between production and sales has decreased rapidly, and the cost control is effective. The performance growth affected by the epidemic in 2020 has gradually recovered. At the same time, the reform of water price mechanism defines the incentive direction of "high quality and good price", which is expected to drive the price by operation and improve the revenue of water supply.
Sufficient reserves have been put into operation, and waste incineration lights up the future of solid waste. Through the development and accumulation during the 13th Five Year Plan period, the company took domestic waste as the main line and formed a solid waste business layout with incineration as the core. There are 73 reserve projects with a total processing capacity of 13.72 million tons / year. Among them, the waste incineration project will be put into operation from 2020 to 2021h1, with an incineration capacity of 9500 tons / day, and more than 10000 tons / day is planned to be put into operation within 2 years. The incineration operation has been carried out smoothly. In 2020, the on grid power will be increased to 610 million kwh. The power generation capacity per ton of garbage and the ratio of on grid power to power generation capacity rank among the forefront of the industry. The solid waste business is expected to enter a rapid growth period during the 14th Five Year Plan period.
REITs revitalizes stock assets and injects potential into operation valuation. In June 2021, the company successfully released the REIT product pioneered by Wells Fargo, which is the only sewage asset product among the first nine pilot projects. The issuance of REITs can not only revitalize the stock assets, but also reflect the market's reassessment of the value of stock assets based on the management and operation level. According to the valuation estimation of REIT pioneered by Wells Fargo, the valuation of the production capacity of the company's holding company can reach 21.35 billion yuan, and the management and operation has broad potential to improve the valuation of the company.
Investment suggestions:
We predict that the operating revenue of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be 24.3 billion yuan, 31.1 billion yuan and 38.7 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 2.29 billion yuan, 2.35 billion yuan and 2.998 billion yuan. The corresponding PE is 11.14, 10.88 and 8.52 respectively. Covering the company for the first time and giving a "buy" rating.
Risk warning: the project promotion is less than the expected risk, the water price adjustment lags behind the risk, and the industrial policy is less than the expected risk.
