\u3000\u30 Beijing Zznode Technologies Co.Ltd(003007) 77 Sinofibers Technology Co.Ltd(300777) )
Events
On March 14, the company announced that it had signed a “product order contract” with customers for carbon fiber and carbon fiber fabrics, with a total contract amount of 2.17 billion yuan, accounting for 556.94% of the company’s operating revenue in 2020.
Brief comment
The company reaped carbon fiber super orders, and the three-level jump of production capacity accelerated the shift of performance
The company signed the product order contract of carbon fiber and carbon fiber fabric with customer a, with a total contract amount of 2.17 billion yuan, accounting for 556.94% of the company’s operating revenue in 2020, and the contract performance period is 20222023. The signing of the contract shows that the company’s high-performance carbon fiber and fabric are well applied in the high-end field of China’s aerospace, which has been unanimously recognized by customers and laid a solid foundation for subsequent development. At the same time, from 2021 to 2023, the company’s production capacity will complete a three-level jump of 1204502000 tons. It is expected that the performance shift will accelerate in 2022 and the development will enter the fast lane!
Military carbon fiber leader with strong technical strength
The company’s carbon fiber is mainly used in military. With the equipment upgrading during the 14th Five Year Plan period, the equipment upgrading from the second and third generation aircraft to the fourth generation aircraft, the downstream demand continues to grow high. Adhering to independent innovation, the company has taken the lead in realizing the stable batch application of zt7 series high-performance carbon fiber products in the aerospace field, and continuously improving the quality and industrialization level of carbon fiber by increasing engineering and R & D investment. At the same time, the company cooperates with industrial chain partners to build an innovation platform for carbon fiber and composite industry, and promote the all-round development of high-performance carbon fiber products through the promotion and application in aerospace field and medium and high-end civil market.
The proposed fixed value-added projects have broad growth space in the future
In August 2021, the company announced that it planned to increase no more than 100 million shares and raise no more than 2 billion yuan to build two oxidation and carbonization production lines with an annual output of 1500 tons, so as to form a production capacity of 1500 tons of high-performance carbon fiber and fabric products. The construction period of the project is expected to be 4 years, and the production can be reached in the second year of operation. After the completion of the project, it can achieve an average annual sales revenue of 1.72 billion yuan, an average annual net profit of 750 million yuan and an internal rate of return (after income tax) of 26.95%. After the project is put into operation, it can further give play to the company’s unique technical and product quality advantages, expand the production capacity and supply capacity of medium and high-end products, enhance the comprehensive competitiveness, and consolidate the company’s position in China’s aerospace and other medium and high-end markets. Based on the downstream demand and the rhythm of capacity release, it is expected that the company’s profit volume will rush from 200 million to 1 billion in the next three years.
Carbon fiber is widely used, and the growth rate of downstream demand can be expected
China’s carbon fiber industry is experiencing a rapid growth period, and the localization rate has increased steadily. According to Orsay carbon fiber technology data, China’s carbon fiber demand in 2019 was 37800 tons (accounting for about 1 / 3 of the global carbon fiber demand), and it is expected to reach 119000 tons in 2025, corresponding to an average annual compound growth rate of 21%. With the gradual breakthrough of China’s carbon fiber technology and the improvement of production capacity, the growth rate of domestic carbon fiber in the past decade is higher than that of import, which promotes the localization rate to rise from 2.4% in 2008 to 32% in 2019. Around 2025, domestic carbon fiber is expected to exceed import in quantity. With the rapid development of China’s aerospace, clean energy, new energy vehicles and other emerging industries, the scale of China’s carbon fiber market is expected to maintain a rapid growth rate; Globally, the global demand for carbon fiber in 2019 was 107300 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 12%, and is expected to reach 217000 tons and 422000 tons in 2025 and 2030, corresponding to an average annual compound growth rate of 13-14%.
Profit forecast and Valuation: it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021, 2022 and 2023 will be 231, 525 and 852 million yuan respectively, the corresponding EPS will be 0.58, 1.31 and 2.13 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 95.3x, 41.9x and 25.8x respectively.
Risk warning: downstream demand is less than expected; Risk of product price reduction.
