\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 309 Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) )
Event: the company released its 2021 annual report. During the reporting period, the operating revenue was 145538 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 98.19%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 24.649 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 145.47%, which were 66.21/69.09/60.11/5.107 billion yuan respectively in a single quarter. At the same time, the company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.5 yuan per share (including tax).
The three sectors go hand in hand, especially the petrochemical sector. The polyurethane sector benefited from the completion of technical transformation of 1.1 million T / a MDI device in Yantai Industrial Park and 350000 T / a MDI device in BC company in February 2021, with production and sales of 4.01 million T / 3.89 million T respectively, a year-on-year increase of + 39.63% / 34.86%; The petrochemical sector benefited from the 1 million ton ethylene project put into operation in November 2020, with production and sales of 4 / 10.04 million tons respectively, a year-on-year increase of + 112.86% / 59.80%; The production and sales of fine chemicals and new materials were 79 / 760000 tons respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 37.87% / 36.95%. In terms of price, affected by the shortage of supply caused by frequent force majeure of overseas MDI devices in 2021, the average price of pure MDI / polymerized MDI was 22346 / 19871 yuan / ton respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 25.28/37.26%. However, due to the same rise in the prices of aniline and formaldehyde, the price difference of pure MDI / polymerized MDI was 11077 / 8887 yuan / ton respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.11% / 9.83%. The price of petrochemical products also increased in varying degrees. Especially for C3 industrial chain products, the average price of acrylic acid and butyl ester were 11902 / 16348 yuan / ton respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 72.23% / 95.78%. The volume and price of products in all sectors rose simultaneously, and the revenue of the petrochemical sector reached 61.409 billion yuan, accounting for 42.2%, surpassing that of the polyurethane sector for the first time. However, the gross profit margin of polyurethane is high, and its gross profit still accounts for 55.5%, but the petrochemical sector has also increased significantly to 27.5%. By the end of 2020, the EIA of the company’s ethylene phase II project was approved. The project uses naphtha and mixed butane as raw materials to produce olefins, aromatics and downstream products through 1.2 million T / a ethylene cracking unit. The company’s product diversification is enhanced, which is conducive to reducing the dependence on polyurethane sector and leading the company’s secondary growth.
High R & D investment and continuous capital expenditure ensure long-term growth. In 2021, the company’s R & D investment reached 3.168 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 55.1%, and its capital expenditure reached 27 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 16.2%. Only continuous R & D investment and capital expenditure can lead to the planning, construction and operation of new projects. In 2021, the PBAT biodegradable polyester project and ternary cathode battery material project in Meishan base in Sichuan were successfully put into operation. A large number of subsequent projects such as special PC, PA12, Poe, citral, lithium iron phosphate cathode material and NMP will be completed and put into operation one after another to ensure the long-term growth of the company.
Investment suggestion: we expect the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 to be RMB 25.9052947331.072 billion respectively, EPS to be RMB 8.25/9.39/9.9 respectively, and the corresponding PE to be 10 / 9 / 8 times respectively. Considering that the company is in a cyclical industry, but it makes its own blood and continues to have strong capital expenditure, which promotes the company’s medium and long-term growth and maintains the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the product price has fallen sharply, and the progress of new projects is less than expected.
