\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 198 Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) )
Key investment points
Event: the company released the annual performance express of 2021. The annual revenue was 4.58 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 32.6%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 44.7%; Among them, the revenue of single Q4 was 1.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 14.3%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 420 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 0.8%. The revenue of single Q4 met the market expectation, and the profit was slightly lower than the market expectation.
The potential energy of cave storage is released rapidly, and the upgrading of product structure continues. Focusing on the “233” development strategy, the company focused on the category of ecological cave collection, made outstanding achievements in product upgrading, market layout and team construction, and achieved beautiful growth throughout the year. 1. Thanks to the outstanding advantages of focused cultivation, accurate positioning and sufficient channel push, in 2021, Dongzang series entered the period of accelerated release of potential energy, consumer cognition and channel market rate increased steadily, dong6 / 9 entered the state of comprehensive general sales, Dong16 / 20 showed explosive growth, Dongzang led the rapid upgrading of product structure, driving the annual net interest rate to increase by 2.5 percentage points to 30.2%, Profitability continued to improve. 2. The company focuses on building an offensive and learning sales team, seizing the core terminal through deep excavation of hotel and banquet channels, and cultivating consumers through direct cost investment, so as to continuously improve the channel power; In the past 21 years, the market heat of Dongzang in Hefei, Lu’an and other bases continued to ferment, showing a continuous and good development trend in Huaibei, Bengbu and other markets. 3. The revenue of single Q4 in 21 years slowed down on a month on month basis, mainly because the base number of 21q4 in the same period was high, and the company actively controlled the delivery rhythm at the end of the year; The profit side of single Q4 is subject to periodic pressure, which is expected to be mainly due to the company’s increasing investment in platforms such as China Central Television, expressway and high-speed railway station.
Spring Festival sales exceeded expectations, and 22q1 is expected to achieve a good start. 1. During the Spring Festival of 22 years, Anhui market was not affected by the epidemic, the epidemic control policy was looser than in previous years, and the number of returnees increased significantly year-on-year; The consumption heat of visiting relatives and friends, banquets and dinners is significantly better than that in previous years, and Yingjia fully benefits from the booming market of Huijiu during the Spring Festival. 2. According to grassroots research feedback, during the Spring Festival, the dynamic sales of Dongzang series significantly exceeded expectations. Dongzang series was once out of stock in some markets, especially dong6 at the price of 100 yuan; In addition, jinyinxing and Pujiu have also achieved benign growth. After the Spring Festival, the channel has made positive payments and replenishment for the second time, and 22q1 has a high probability of making a good start.
In the promotion of regional expansion, we are optimistic about the high elasticity of the whole year. 1. Benefiting from the strong economic growth in Anhui and the active cultivation of leading liquor enterprises, Huijiu ushered in a new round of fast-paced upgrading of mainstream prices, and the superposition of sub high-end prices has become the second growth curve of Huijiu brand, with a full sense of upgrading rhythm. 2. In the Spring Festival of 22, the dynamic sales of Dongzang exceeded expectations, laying a solid foundation for the high growth of the whole year; Taking advantage of the potential energy of Dongzang to accelerate the release of Dongfeng, the company will accelerate regional penetration and expansion in 22 years, and strengthen market cultivation in Northern Anhui market in 22 years; In addition, the company focused on the layout of the “strategy along the river”, and copied the mode and method of developing Hefei market to Wuhu, Anqing and other southern Anhui markets. 3. The high growth of Dongzang leads the structural upgrading. At present, the proportion of Dongzang series is still lower than that of the original pulp series of the year. In the future, dong6 and 9 will continue to increase rapidly, and Dong16 and 20 are expected to take over. The structural upgrading will drive the rapid increase of gross profit margin and full explosive profit.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. It is estimated that the EPS from 2021 to 2023 will be 1.72 yuan, 2.42 yuan and 3.10 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 34 times, 25 times and 19 times respectively. The potential energy of Dongzang series will be accelerated, the upgrading of product structure will continue, the performance will be explosive, and the “buy” rating will be maintained.
Risk tip: the risk of sharp economic decline and the risk of repeated covid-19 epidemic.
