\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 198 Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) )
Main points:
Event description:
The company announced the performance forecast for 21 years, with a revenue of 4.577 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 32.58%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 44.74%; The non net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.290 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 45.58%. Quarterly, the company's 21q4 revenue was 1.396 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 14.27%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 418 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of -0.81%; The non net profit attributable to the parent deduction was 378 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 5.50%, which was in line with our expectations as a whole.
The effect of product structure optimization is remarkable, and the volume of cave reserves continues to increase with high performance
The company focused on Ecological cave collection series products, streamlined medium and low-end products, continued to promote the optimization and upgrading of product structure, and the proportion of medium and high-end product revenue continued to increase. Water is the blood of wine. The brewing water of Dongzang is cut from the bamboo roots of Foziling reservoir. With excellent wine quality, the self ordering rate of Dongzang terminal is significantly improved. According to grassroots research feedback, the profits of Dongzang series channels have not been transparent. Compared with competing products at the same price, they are still considerable and the channel is full of thrust. Based on the comprehensive performance forecast and channel research, we expect that among the company's medium and high-end products, jinyinxing series will return to the pre epidemic level, the revenue of Dongzang series will increase by more than 50% year-on-year, and the products above dong9 will perform well.
Strengthen the cultivation of consumers, and the profitability of Q4 is under pressure for a short time
The negative year-on-year return of the company's 21q4 net interest rate to the parent is mainly due to the company's increased cost investment and strengthened consumer cultivation after the Mid Autumn Festival of 21 years. Specifically, in order to enhance the brand image of Dongzang, on the one hand, the company changed its advertising ideas, and the main body of advertising changed from dong6 / 9 to Dong16 / 20. On the other hand, it actively held Dongzang tasting. The circulation end was mainly Dong16, and the group purchase end was mainly dong20.
During the upgrading of Huijiu, it helps the gradual upgrading of Dongzang
In 2021, the resident population of Anhui Province reached 61.13 million, the high-tech manufacturing industry increased by 27.4% and the GDP of Hefei metropolitan area increased by 8.6%. The high-quality economic development in Anhui Province supported the upgrading of Huijiu. At present, the mainstream Baijiu consumption price belt has increased to 200 yuan + 300 yuan + price belt rapid rise, 500 yuan + price belt is ready to go out. We believe that dong6 / 9 has a consumption base in the mass price band, and the company is expected to further complete the rapid cultivation of Dong16 / 20 with the help of Huijiu upgrade Dongfeng.
Investment advice
Taking multiple measures, the company has built two benchmark markets in Lu'an and Hefei in the province, and realized rapid expansion with Tongling + Chaohu and Huaibei + Suzhou as the north and South wings; Outside the province, based in East China, explore core markets such as Jiangsu and Shanghai, gather and form a national influence. In addition, compared with last year, the control of the epidemic situation in the Spring Festival of 22 years was relatively relaxed. According to the channel feedback, the sales of Huijiu during the Spring Festival were bright, and the goods were once out of stock during the Spring Festival. The excellent performance of the company is expected to continue and increase the performance. We estimate that the company's revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 4.576 billion yuan, 5.721 billion yuan and 7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 32.6% / 25.0% / 22.3%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 1.380 billion, 1.773 billion and 2.208 billion, with a year-on-year increase of + 44.7% / + 28.5% / + 24.5%, EPS of 1.72, 2.22 and 2.76 respectively, and corresponding PE of 34.40, 26.77 and 21.50 respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
The risk of epidemic spreading, the macroeconomic risk is lower than expected, and the risk of intensified competition in the province.
