\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 996 Chongqing Shunbo Aluminum Co.Ltd(002996) )
Core view
Performance growth of 75% in 2021 Chongqing Shunbo Aluminum Co.Ltd(002996) announced the performance in 2021. The company’s operating revenue in 2021 was 9.985 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 105.1%, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 342 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 74.7%, deducting 243 million yuan of non attributable net profit, a year-on-year increase of 32.9%, and the net cash flow from operating activities was -969 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 367.6%. There is a big difference between the net cash flow generated by the company’s operating activities and the net profit. The main reason is that the company purchases raw materials with cash, and the sales side gives customers a certain credit period, which is superimposed on the rapid expansion of the company’s production and sales scale and the rise of aluminum price, resulting in the increase of the company’s accounts receivable. The company continues to have high turnover and stable profitability. The company continues the advantage of high operating turnover efficiency. Under the industry characteristics of “heavy materials and light industry” and the relatively constant profit in processing links, the company maintains high operating efficiency through the fine management of the whole business chain. The roe of the company will rise steadily in 2021. Thanks to the strong downstream demand and the operation of the company’s Hubei Laohekou production base, the sales radius is expanded and tends to be reasonable. The company achieved 598000 tons of recycled alloy sales in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 62.9%. With the high growth of production and sales, the company’s profit per ton of products remained stable. Without considering the entrusted processing business, the rough calculation of the company’s gross profit per ton of recycled aluminum in 2021 was 842 yuan, which was basically the same as that in the past few years.
Advance the layout of recycled aluminum for grade protection and utilization to open up space for future growth. Based on the development of casting aluminum alloy business, the company acquired 100% equity of Chongqing Aobo aluminum material manufacturing Co., Ltd. in November 2021, initially cut into the application market of deformed aluminum alloy with larger volume, complied with the development trend of the industry, accelerated the graded utilization of waste aluminum resources, and created a two wheel drive business of “casting aluminum alloy raw material supply + deformed aluminum alloy raw material supply”.
Risk tip: the production progress of the company’s new capacity is less than expected, and the downstream demand is at risk of weakening. Investment suggestion: maintain the “overweight” rating.
Assuming that the sales growth rate of recycled aluminum ingots of the parent company is RMB 188.2 billion / 2024 / 2024 / 2024, the average annual net profit of recycled aluminum ingots is expected to remain at RMB 188.2 billion / 2024 / 2024 / 2024 / 2024 / 2024 / 2024 / 2024 / 2024 / 2024 / 2024, respectively, The year-on-year growth rate was 16.3/21.4/22.5%; Diluted EPS = 0.91/1.10/1.35 yuan, and the current share price corresponds to PE = 13.3/11.0/8.9x. Considering that the company is a leading producer of recycled aluminum in China, the company’s production capacity layout area is reasonable and the production capacity is steadily expanded. The company plans to use recycled aluminum in advance to open up space for future growth. The company will fully benefit from the accelerated development of recycled aluminum industry and maintain the “overweight” rating.
