\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 309 Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) )
Events
On March 14, the company announced that in 2021, the company realized an operating revenue of 145538 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 98.19%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 24.649 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 145.47%. The performance is in line with expectations.
Analysis
The price of MDI is basically stable. After the expansion of the company, the advantages are further prominent. In 2021, the revenue of polyurethane sector was 60.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 72%, and the sales volume was 3.89 million tons, a year-on-year increase of + 33%. According to Baichuan Yingfu, the average price of polymerized MDI / pure MDI in 2021 was 19870 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of + 37.45%; The price of pure MDI was 22342 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of + 25.27%. At the cost side of MDI, according to wind data, the average price of thermal coal in 2021 was 950 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of + 77.9%, and the average price of raw salt was 330 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of + 44.10%.
The rise in petrochemical prices pushed the company’s petrochemical business to a new high. In 2021, the company’s petrochemical series output was 4 million tons, a year-on-year increase of + 79.49%; The sales volume was 3.9 million tons, a year-on-year increase of + 74.81%, mainly due to the production of one million tons of ethylene plant, which increased the sales volume of petrochemical products. At the same time, the rise of crude oil price and the global phased imbalance between supply and demand promoted the rise of petrochemical product price.
The emerging material field has a forward-looking layout and rich project reserves. In 2021, the R & D cost of the company was 3 billion 168 million yuan, up +55.07%, and the R & D investment continued to increase. The research projects mainly focused on the technological incubation of new business segments such as high-end chemical new materials and solutions and emerging materials, such as carbon neutral technology, recycling and utilization of polyurethane foam, degradable materials and key monomer. High performance materials (nylon 12, special PC, Poe, optical grade PMMA, etc.), new energy energy storage and battery materials, separation and purification, etc.
Investment advice
In terms of polyurethane business, Yantai base and BC completed MDI technical transformation and expansion, and Fujian project continued to advance; The petrochemical field will also promote the layout of Fujian base. At the same time, it is expected that fine chemical projects will gradually increase in volume in the next 1-2 years. Considering the high price of upstream raw materials and the decline of some petrochemical products, we predict that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 24.77 (- 6.79%) billion yuan, 26 (- 11.83%) billion yuan and 28 billion yuan respectively (newly introduced). EPS is divided into 7.89, 8.28 and 8.93 yuan. The current market value corresponds to PE of 9.57x, 9.12x and 8.46x respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
Downside risk of product price and large fluctuation risk of raw material price; The progress of the new project is not up to expectations; New material research and development is less than expected risk.
