\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 689 Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) )
Core view
The performance of 2021q4 continued to increase. The company disclosed the performance express. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 11.44 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 75.7%, and 1.045 billion yuan attributable to the parent company (the previous performance forecast was 1.05 billion yuan – 1.15 billion yuan, mainly due to the company’s provision for value reduction of 46.65 million yuan for the goodwill formed by Zhejiang Tuowei and Sichuan Maigao acquired in 2017), a year-on-year increase of 66.3%; The revenue of 2021q4 was 3.62 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 65.0% and a month on month increase of + 24.4%; The return to the parent was 292 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 21.2% and a month on month increase of – 0.7%. In 2021q4, the return of goodwill impairment to the parent company was + 40.6% year-on-year and + 15.3% month on month, and the net interest rate of goodwill impairment was 9.4% (month on month -0.7pct, which is expected to be affected by the rise in the price of raw materials). It is expected that the high performance of the company will mainly benefit from the development of product lines, the large number of customers of Tesla based new energy vehicle enterprises and the upward supply value of single vehicles.
The operating data from January to February 2022 are bright. From January to February 2022, the company achieved a revenue of about 2.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 60%, and a return to the parent of about 250 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 64%. It is expected to benefit from the scale effect and the operation of raw material price adjustment mechanism to mitigate the impact of raw material price rise.
Accurately locate modular suppliers of multi category tracks. The company promotes the “2 + 3” industrial layout (NVH damping system, vehicle acoustic package + lightweight chassis, thermal management and intelligent driving system). Among them, thermal management has successfully developed heat pump assembly, electronic expansion valve, electronic water valve and other products, and accelerated the research and development of heat pump assembly 2.0; Automotive electronics (IBS, EPS, intelligent cockpit, etc.) have blossomed in many categories; Layout of air suspension: in November 2021, the company’s first air suspension factory was inaugurated, covering an area of 100 mu, with an annual production capacity of 2 million pieces and supporting 500000 vehicles. It is planned to start production in June 2022. At present, the company has realized single chamber (single chamber) technology and multi chamber (multi chamber) technology to provide superior comfort and ensure the handling stability of the whole vehicle.
Continue to expand customers and accelerate the layout of production capacity into the harvest period. Future performance can be expected: 1) continue to break through Tesla‘s product system (lightweight structural parts, interior and exterior decoration and thermal management), and accelerate the global volume of Model3 / Y; 2) Cooperate with rivian (the value of supporting bicycles is 11000 yuan), Weilai and other new forces to explore the tier 0.5 cooperation mode; 3) Cooperate with Huawei on heat management related products; 4) Continue the layout of production capacity outside China.
Risk tip: the recovery of the industry is less than expected, and the R & D of new products and customer expansion are less than expected.
Investment suggestion: Tesla’s localization of core targets will maintain the “overweight” rating
The company’s growing performance benefited from the decline in marginal costs caused by capacity release and the large volume of core customers. Based on the short-term impact of core shortage and rising prices of raw materials, as well as the continuous emergence of medium and long-term scale effects, the company adjusted its profit forecast: the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2022 / 2023 was raised to RMB 1.653/2.011 billion (original RMB 1.593/1.974 billion). In 2021 / 2022 / 2023, the corresponding EPS is 0.95/1.50/1.82 yuan (formerly 1.06/1.45/1.79 yuan), and the corresponding PE is 36 times in 2022, maintaining the “overweight” rating.
