\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 233 Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) )
Event:
The company announced that from January to February 2022, the company completed 2.297 billion express business, a year-on-year increase of 27.81%; The operating revenue was about 7.624 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.28%; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was about 545 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 186.36%.
Core view:
Volume: from January to February, the growth rate of the company’s volume of parts exceeded expectations. By month, the company completed 1.329 billion tickets in January, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, and 968 million tickets in February, a year-on-year increase of 83%. The company’s volume growth is faster than expected. We believe that the main benefit from the upstream business and the consumption of live goods are the main drivers of the benefit. The continuous growth of the industry has been more favorable to the higher head Market Express. The integration of the tail express tiktok and the Baishi Express has further spilt the customers in the process of integration to the head express company.
Price: the company continued its price strategy in the peak season. In January, the unit price of Yuantong was 2.72 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.29%. The unit price from January to February basically continued the price level in the peak season of 2021. Since September 2021, the unit price of the industry has continued to pick up, and the unit price of Yuantong has also continued to rise month on month. It is expected to realize the characteristics of not light off-season and more prosperous peak season in 2022. From January to February, the company’s single bill net profit / deduction of non net profit were 0.24 yuan and 0.22 yuan respectively, much better than 0.11 yuan and 0.09 yuan in the same period in 2021. In recent years, the company has continued to promote digital transformation and achieved remarkable success in reducing costs and increasing efficiency. We expect the company’s profitability in the first quarter to maintain high growth.
Digital transformation reduces costs, and aviation business opens the second profit growth curve. In recent years, the management of Yuantong has improved significantly and the digital transformation has achieved remarkable results, which has brought double improvement of service quality and operation efficiency to Yuantong. Considering that Yuantong is not the first in the industry competition at present, with the continuous optimization of service quality and cost, the ranking of the company in the industry is likely to rise. In addition, Yuantong continues to layout the aviation market and has a certain first mover advantage in the construction of its own aviation network and international aviation network. In the current tide of China’s international double cycle and the upgrading of express service manufacturing industry, there is a very broad growth space.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
We believe that in 2022, the pattern of the express industry will continue to improve and the logic of prosperity will remain unchanged. At present, the industry maintains high-pressure supervision on the price war. With the business data in January and February exceeding expectations, the industry is expected to have the characteristics of not light off-season and more prosperous peak season, and the concentration of leading companies will continue to rise. We estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21-23 years is RMB 2.062/33.57/4.585 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 16.69% / 62.86% / 36.57% respectively, and the corresponding EPS is RMB 0.60/0.98/1.34. In recent years, Yuantong’s management has improved significantly, and the gap with leading enterprises has gradually narrowed. In the future, it will continue to usher in the double rise of performance and valuation, and maintain the “recommended” rating.
Risk tip: market competition exceeds expectations, the demand for e-commerce parts is less than expected, and the cost of oil price continues to rise.
