\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 702 Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) )
Events
The company issued the announcement of pre increase of performance in the first quarter of 2022. It is estimated that the company’s operating revenue will increase by about 80% in 22q1, that is, about 1.85 billion yuan; The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 460560 million yuan (+ 52% ~ 85%); It is expected to realize a net profit of 445545 million yuan (+ 48% ~ 85%).
Brief comment
Willing to continue to promote the old wine, it has made a successful start in 22 years
In 2022, Q1 company is expected to have an operating revenue of about 1.85 billion yuan, an increase of about 80% year-on-year. It is expected to realize a net profit attributable to the parent of 460560 million yuan (+ 52% ~ 85%), deducting a net profit not attributable to the parent of 445545 million yuan (+ 48% ~ 85%), all in line with our expectations. The high growth of willing performance is due to: first, the company has exceeded the target in 21 years, and Q4 began to control goods and sort out channel inventory in advance; Secondly, continue to promote the old wine strategy, take advantage of the secondary high-end capacity expansion + old wine strategy, and maintain high growth in taste series and collection series. In terms of Tuopai, the customized liquor business of Tuopai and the implementation of the “c2m strategy” have been restarted. T68, liuliang, tuopaiqu liquor reprint and other products have highlighted their brand and quality advantages in the light bottle liquor track, arousing consumers’ memory with old liquor, and it is expected to accelerate the volume in 2022. In addition, super high-end items such as tianzihu and tunzhihu occupy a high price band to enhance the brand image and influence. All round advertising to enhance brand influence.
From the performance of the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company, the expected net interest rate of 22q1 is 24.86% ~ 30.27%, which is lower than that of the same period last year in terms of median. The main reasons are as follows: ① since 21 years, the company has strengthened the promotion of Tuopai and tried to awaken the memory of consumers. 22q1 has increased high growth under the low base, and the proportion of performance has increased steadily; ② According to the official website of shede company, the 22q1 shede all-round advertising agency project won the bid, continued to increase advertising efforts, and carried out all-round promotion on multiple platforms, including China Central Television advertising, high potential outdoor advertising, transportation, elevator and outdoor advertising in key cities, and JD platform advertising.
High growth in the peak season of the Spring Festival, and the channel ecology continues to improve.
The Spring Festival of the 22nd year started well and gave a good performance. Except for some areas affected by the epidemic, the overall dynamic sales situation was excellent, and the dealers were highly motivated to collect money. During the peak season of the Spring Festival, the amount of alcohol used at the banquet has increased significantly (especially in Sichuan), the product grade has been upgraded, the consumption atmosphere is good, the channel inventory digestion is good, and the inventory level is maintained at a healthy level of about 2 months.
The four strategic lines are clear, and Fosun takes the lead to help the old famous wine take off.
In 2022, the company continued to promote national channel expansion and deep cultivation, optimize channel structure, expand terminal coverage, establish Chengdu alliance, integrate customer resources, accurately invest and manage expenses. Shede will gradually integrate into Fosun ecology, highlight the brand positioning of shede old wine, give full play to the scale and quality advantages of 120000 ton jars of old wine, and lead the revival of old wine along the differentiated route. The company continues to strive to continue to expand and strengthen Baijiu business, and to develop its short, medium and long-term goals. Nationalization can be expected, and northeast, northwest, East and South China are expected to usher in new breakthroughs. We are optimistic that as a national sub high-end famous wine, willing to enjoy the double dividend of sub high-end capacity expansion and the rapid growth of the old wine market will continue to grow rapidly. At the same time, Tuopai is also expected to accelerate its revival, and Nuggets will enter the market of 100 billion high-priced light bottle wine.
Profit forecast:
It is estimated that from 2022 to 2023, the company will realize revenue of 7.018 billion yuan and 8.808 billion yuan, net profit attributable to parent company of 1.833 billion yuan and 2.451 billion yuan, corresponding EPS of 5.45 and 7.29 yuan / share, corresponding PE of 39.4x and 29.5x, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips:
The market expansion is less than expected, the epidemic situation is repeated, food safety risks, etc.
