\u3000\u30 Shaanxi Zhongtian Rocket Technology Co.Ltd(003009) 19 Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) )
Key points
Event: the company released its annual report for 2021, realizing an operating revenue of 20.072 billion yuan, an increase of 169.81% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was 939 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 123.48%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction was 769 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 121.57%. The performance is in line with expectations.
Comments:
The company’s 21q4 achieved a revenue of 6.2 billion yuan, a month on month increase of + 12.3%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 174 million yuan, a month on month increase of – 37.2%, which was mainly affected by the rapid increase of personnel scale, the provision of year-end bonus and the abnormal rise of auxiliary soda Q4. After reducing these factors, the company’s net profit per ton exceeded 5000 yuan / ton.
The structure of high-end products continued to be optimized. In terms of product structure, according to the company’s annual report, in 2021, the company’s shipments of ternary precursor 8 series and above accounted for nearly 50%, the shipments of high-voltage and doped Co3O4 above 4.45v accounted for more than 80%, and the market share of Chinese shipments of high-voltage Co3O4 materials exceeded 50%.
The shipment volume increased rapidly and the market share increased steadily. In 2021, the company shipped 175600 tons of precursors, including 152300 tons of ternary precursors, with a year-on-year increase of 110%. According to the company’s annual report and xinlune consulting, the market share of ternary precursors increased to 26%, with a year-on-year increase of 3PCT; The sales volume of cobalt oxide industry was 330000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 27000 tons, and the market share of cobalt oxide industry remained the first. By the end of the 21st century, the company has a production capacity of 200000 tons of ternary precursor and 30000 tons of Co3O4. With the continuous production of new production capacity, we expect the company to form a production capacity of 350000 tons of precursor by the end of the 22nd century. The company plans to have a production capacity of more than 500000 tons by 2023, and the advantage of production scale will be further strengthened.
The integrated layout is accelerated and the net profit per ton is thickened. In terms of integrated industrial layout, with the gradual production of the company’s southern base, the overall circular smelting capacity will be further improved. It is expected that the self supply proportion of circular smelting will exceed 30% in 2022. In 2021, the company established a joint venture Indonesia Zhongqing new energy Co., Ltd. to process the local laterite nickel ore in Indonesia through pyrotechnics. The first phase of the investment project is expected to be completed and put into operation in the third quarter of 2022. Through mineral resource processing precursor production recycling, the integration process of the company is accelerating the layout, which is expected to improve the net profit per ton.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: the smelting capacity will be put into operation gradually, the proportion of integrated self supply will be increased, and the profit per ton will be significantly improved; The new production capacity continues to be released, and the shipment volume is expected to increase rapidly. The net profit forecast for 22-23 years is increased by 5% / 20%. The new forecast for 2024 predicts that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 202224 is expected to be RMB 2.135/32.48/4.315 billion, and the current stock price corresponds to pe33 / 22 / 16x. As the leader of ternary precursor, the company benefits from the rapid development of high nickel ternary, high-quality customers, release of production capacity, increase of market share, large room for improvement of integrated profits, and maintains the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: technical route change; Increased competition and declining profits; Overseas business risks; Capacity digestion was less than expected.
