\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 005 Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) )
The company benefits from the rapid growth of new energy vehicles, the rapid growth of sales of high nickel ternary materials and the continuous improvement of technical level; After listing, the capital situation is improved, the new production capacity is gradually implemented to meet the needs of downstream customers, and the profitability is gradually improved; For the first time, the company will give an overweight rating.
Key points supporting rating
Rapid growth into a leading enterprise of high nickel ternary materials: the company is a leading enterprise of ternary materials and was listed on the science and Innovation Board of Shanghai Stock Exchange in July 2019. The company has benefited from the growth of sales volume of new energy vehicles and installed capacity of power batteries. The sales volume of products has increased rapidly, and the market share of ternary cathode and high nickel ternary industry has always been the first in the industry. The company has successively carried out four phases of equity incentive to demonstrate the company’s confidence in future development, which is also conducive to the company to attract and motivate core technical talents and gradually enhance its core competitiveness.
The company is expected to benefit from the rapid growth of power battery demand: the demand for new energy vehicles in the world and China maintains a rapid growth, and the demand for power batteries increases accordingly. With the increasing requirements of new energy vehicles for mileage and fast charging, high nickel ternary batteries with advantages in energy density, rate performance and low temperature performance are expected to gradually increase the market share. The mass production of 4680 cylindrical battery is expected to further promote the application of high nickel ternary materials. We predict that in 2022, the global sales volume of new energy vehicles will reach 9.2 million, the demand for power batteries will reach 450 GWH, of which the demand for ternary batteries will reach 261gwh, and the demand for high nickel ternary materials is expected to reach 220000 tons. As a leading enterprise, the company is expected to benefit directly.
Continuously improve the technical level and actively layout upstream materials: the company’s high nickel product technology is in a leading position in China, and actively develops new products of ultra-high nickel series of ni90 and above. Among them, the preliminary development of ni90 products was completed in 2021 and small batch supply has been realized. The company actively distributes the upstream precursor business and gradually increases the self supply proportion of precursors, which is expected to reduce the cost of raw materials.
Valuation
Under the current share capital, combined with the current situation of the company and the development of the industry, we expect the company to achieve earnings per share of 2.03/4.05/6.13 yuan from 2021 to 2023, corresponding to a price earnings ratio of 58.7/29.5/19.5 times; For the first time, the company will give an overweight rating.
Main risks of rating
The price of raw materials fluctuated disadvantageously, the industrial policy of new energy vehicles did not meet expectations, the product power of new energy vehicles did not meet expectations, the demand of the industrial chain did not meet expectations, and the impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations
