Satellite Chemistry ( Zhejiang Satellite Petrochemical Co.Ltd(002648) )
Event:
On March 16, 2022, satellite chemistry announced: according to preliminary accounting, from January to February, 2022, the company is expected to achieve an operating revenue of about 5.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 147%; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company is expected to be about 1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 138%.
C2 phase I project operated stably, and its performance increased rapidly from January to February
From January to February 2021, the company expects to achieve a revenue of about 5.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 147%; The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be about 1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 138%. The high growth of performance is due to the stable operation of C2 project in the first stage, which mainly includes one set of 450000 T / a HDPE unit and two sets of 720000 / 91000 T / a EO / EG units. It has operated well since it was put into operation on May 20, 2021; Meanwhile, the downstream supporting 250000 T / a polyether monomer has also been put into operation in October 2021, contributing to the performance increment. On the other hand, the main products of the company’s C3 sector, acrylic acid and ester, continued to boom. According to wind, as of March 16, the average market price of 2022q1 acrylic acid reached 13974 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of + 53.99% and a month on month decrease of – 6.35%; The price difference between acrylic acid and propane reached 8883 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of + 68.96% and a month on month increase of – 10.31%. Affected by the shutdown of downstream enterprises during the Spring Festival holiday, although the price difference of acrylic acid decreased month on month, it still increased significantly year-on-year, showing high profitability. With the gradual recovery of downstream demand, the price of acrylic acid also rose again. On March 16, the average price of acrylic acid reached 14900 yuan / ton, which was 11700 yuan / ton lower than that in January, with a cumulative increase of 27.35%.
New projects continue to be launched, and the company has strong growth certainty
While the company’s C2 project contributes to the performance increment in the first stage, the construction of new projects continues. Among them, the main equipment of phase II of C2 project (including 1.25 million T / a ethane cracking, 400000 T / a HDPE, 730000 T / a EO and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) T / a styrene) has been installed, the pipeline installation has entered the final stage, and it is expected to feed trial production in the middle of 2022. The long-term equipment orders for the phase I project of green chemical new materials Industrial Park Project (phase I) (including 100000 t / a ethanolamine, 400000 T / a polystyrene, 150000 T / a battery grade carbonate and 300000 t / a refined carbon dioxide) have been ordered, the civil construction has begun, and it is expected to be completed and trial production in the third quarter of 2022, The later projects of green chemical new materials Industrial Park will also continue to be constructed and contribute to the performance increment. Meanwhile, 250000 T / a hydrogen peroxide and 260000 T / a acrylonitrile are also expected to reach production in 2022. In C3 sector, the company’s C3 new materials and new energy integration project (including 800000 T / a PDH, 800000 T / a butanol octanol and 120000 T / a neopentyl glycol) is progressing smoothly as planned and is expected to be put into operation by the end of 2023. As new projects reach production capacity one after another, the company’s future profitability will be continuously improved and its growth will be highly deterministic.
Driven by the goal of carbon neutrality, the company will meet new opportunities for development
Under the background of double carbon, the company actively distributes the field of new energy. On the one hand, the company uses ethane, propane and other low-carbon raw materials to produce olefins and downstream products to reduce carbon emissions from the source; At the same time, the company’s green chemical new materials Industrial Park has arranged a 750000 T / a battery grade carbonate capacity to collect the carbon dioxide generated in production for the production of carbonates and apply them to lithium electrolyte to achieve real green development. On the other hand, the company actively responds to the national hydrogen energy policy and the growing hydrogen energy demand in the market, and actively develops the hydrogen energy business by using the surplus hydrogen in the production process. At present, the company’s 900000 ton PDH unit can produce 72000 tons of hydrogen, and the first phase of Jiangsu Lianyungang Port Co.Ltd(601008) c2 project can produce 70000 tons of hydrogen. The second phase of C2 project and 800000 ton PDH unit will be put into operation, The company’s hydrogen production will reach nearly 300000 tons, which is expected to become a major hydrogen supplier in the Yangtze River Delta, and the hydrogen energy business will also become a new performance growth point of the company.
The profit forecast and investment rating predict that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021, 2022 and 2023 will be 6.131, 8.144 and 10.676 billion yuan respectively, and the EPS will be 3.56, 4.73 and 6.21 yuan / share, corresponding to 11, 8 and 6 times of PE, maintaining the “buy” rating
The risk indicates that the construction of new projects is progressing slowly; The risk of force majeure; Price fluctuation of raw materials; Changes in environmental protection policies; The risk of deterioration of China US relations.
