\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 919 Jinhui Liquor Co.Ltd(603919) )
Performance review
The company released its annual report on March 15. In 2021, it achieved a revenue of 1.788 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 3.34%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 325 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 1.95%. Among them, the revenue of 21q4 was 447 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 34.74%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 82 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 52.61%. The performance was lower than expected.
Business analysis
Q4 the epidemic situation in Gansu and Xi'an is repeated, and the influence of medium and low-grade movable pins is too heavy. 1) In a single quarter, the revenue of Q4 Southeast Gansu (Longnan, Tianshui, etc.) / Lanzhou and surrounding areas / Central Gansu / western Gansu / other areas was - 43.8% / - 39.6% / + 5.6% / - 82.8% / - 9.7% year-on-year, which was due to the epidemic in Lanzhou, Tianshui, Gansu and other places from October to November, and the epidemic in Xi'an repeated at the end of the year; Q4 high / medium / low-grade revenue was - 14.3% / - 47.3% / - 58% year-on-year, and the middle and low-grade were more affected by the epidemic. 2) In terms of products, the high / medium / low-grade income in 21 years was 1.095651/16 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 26.2% / - 19.5% / - 43.4%, and the proportion of high-grade products increased from 51% in 20 years to 62%. The annual sales volume is 13800 tons, the high-grade volume increases by 24% and the price increases by 2%; The medium-sized volume decreased by 20% and the price was flat; The low-grade volume decreased by 46% and the price increased by 4%. 3) In terms of subregions, the revenue of Southeast Gansu / Lanzhou and its surroundings / Central Gansu / western Gansu / other regions in 21 years was 499 / 4.72 / 2.37 / 1.63 / 392 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of - 12.8% / - 0.1% / + 13.3% / + 0.1% / + 35.7%. The proportion outside the province increased from 17% in 20 years to 22%, and the expansion momentum outside the province continued.
The scale effect of Q4 has been greatly weakened. Although there is fee control, the profit is damaged. 21q4 net profit margin is -6.93pct year-on-year, including: 1) gross profit margin is -5.77pct year-on-year, management rate is + 3.12pct year-on-year, or amortization is weakened due to scale effect; 2) The sales rate was -2.06 PCT year-on-year, mainly due to the rhythm of cost control under the epidemic situation; 3) Taxes and surcharges are + 2.42pct year-on-year, and the tax payment rhythm is expected to be disturbed (21 year-on-year + 0.19pct).
The province is ready to go, and the incentive target will be anchored in the next 22-23 years. The company is accelerating its development: 1) in East China, Shanghai and Jiangsu sales companies were established in 21 years to develop Fosun ecological group purchase + enterprise customization. At the end of the year, Jinhui Laojiao has begun to attract investment. 2) After 18 years of introduction in Shaanxi, the channel identity has accumulated. 3) Ningxia and Xinjiang have been in operation for a long time, and 4-5 prefecture level cities have been selected for in-depth development. 4) Inner Mongolia and Qinghai are still in the early stage of brand cultivation. Looking forward to 22 years, the order will restart in December (contract liabilities at the end of 21q4 + 79% year-on-year). Q1 has a promising start in the province, and it may still be disturbed by the epidemic in Shaanxi outside the province. In the next 22 years, we will strive to achieve an income of 2.5 billion (year-on-year + 40%) and achieve the goal of the employee stock ownership plan. We believe that the upgrading of the company's structure in the province is expected to accelerate the interpretation, and the synergy brought by Fosun outside the province is expected. It is suggested to pay attention to the follow-up demand recovery progress.
Profit forecast
Considering the impact of the epidemic and changes in the macro environment, we lowered the profit forecast of 22 / 23 by 6% / 5% respectively, and introduced the 24-year forecast. It is expected that the growth rate of the company's revenue in 22-24 years will be 40% / 20% / 17%, the growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company will be 48% / 24% / 21%, and the EPS will be 0.95/1.18/1.42 yuan. The corresponding PE of the current stock price is 30 / 24 / 20x, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
Repeated epidemic risks, increased market competition risks, macroeconomic downside risks and food safety issues.
