\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 919 Jinhui Liquor Co.Ltd(603919) )
Key investment points
Event: the company disclosed]2021 annual report. The annual revenue was 1.79 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 3.3%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 330 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 2.0%; Single Q4 achieved a revenue of 450 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 34.7%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 80 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 52.6%. The performance of single Q4 was lower than the market expectation.
The product structure has been continuously optimized and the growth rate outside the province is bright. 1. In terms of product structure, the revenue of products above 100 yuan, 30-70 yuan and less than 30 yuan respectively reached 1.1 billion yuan (+ 26.2%), 650 million yuan (- 19.6%) and 16 million yuan (- 43.4%), of which the revenue of products above 100 yuan increased by 11.3 percentage points to 62.1%, and the product structure was significantly upgraded. 2. In terms of subregions, Southeast Gansu, Lanzhou and surrounding areas, central Gansu and other areas achieved revenue of 500 million yuan (- 12.8%), 470 million yuan (- 1.0%), 240 million yuan (+ 13.4%) and 400 million yuan (+ 35.7%) respectively. Affected by the epidemic situation in Lanzhou and surrounding counties and cities in the fourth quarter, the revenue in the province was under pressure. Several model markets have been built in the northwest of Gansu Province, Shanghai and Jiangsu sales companies have been established to layout the East China market, and actively integrate into the rejuvenation ecology, with bright growth outside the province. In 2021, there will be 158 to 323 dealers outside the province. With the continuous development of markets outside the province, outside the province will become an important source of revenue growth.
The upgrading of product structure, the increase of gross profit margin and the increase of expense investment lead to the pressure on profits. 1. The gross profit margin of the whole year increased by 1.1 percentage points to 64.0%, mainly due to the high growth of the revenue of products above 100 yuan and the significant increase of the proportion. The epidemic affected the decline of the sales of products below 100 yuan and the significant upgrading of the product structure. 2. The company increased the investment of media resources, put high-frequency image advertisements of Jinhui 28 products, and increased consumer interaction and brand construction. The sales rate increased by 2.7 percentage points to 15.6% compared with the same period of last year. 3. The rate of administrative expenses increased slightly due to the increase of depreciation, while the rate of financial expenses decreased slightly and remained basically stable. Affected by the upgrading of product structure and the increase of brand construction investment, the company’s net profit margin decreased by 1.0 percentage points to 18.2%.
Fosun enables expansion outside the province and looks forward to the release of performance flexibility. 1, from the provincial perspective, the current mainstream liquor price belt in Gansu Baijiu from the past 100 yuan to 100300 yuan faster pace of upgrading, the company as a leader in Gansu real estate wine, more than 100 yuan product layout leading, will enjoy the bonus of upgrading consumption in the province. 2. The company’s focus on the Northwest market has achieved remarkable results, and the number of dealers around Gansu market has increased, contributing considerable increment; In addition, relying on Fosun Group’s ecology and channel resources, the company has established sales subsidiaries in Shanghai and Jiangsu to develop the East China market, and East China is expected to contribute new increment in the future. 3. The company further promotes the two wheel drive transformation and development of “deep distribution + key customer operation”, and develops opinion leaders and group purchase channels through the key customer operation strategy. Although the short-term cost investment has increased, the medium and long-term is conducive to the improvement of brand strength and lays a solid foundation for long-term sustainable development.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. It is estimated that the EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 0.89 yuan, 1.15 yuan and 1.45 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 32 times, 25 times and 20 times respectively. The company will focus on the secondary high-end and solidly promote the national expansion. The performance elasticity will continue to release and maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the risk of sharp economic decline and the risk of repeated covid-19 epidemic.
