\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 799 Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) )
Event overview
The company issued the announcement on the acquisition of new project orders from 2021 to now: it undertook new project orders of about 13.5 billion yuan in 2021, including ADB headlamp, DLP headlamp and lamp controller; From January 1 to March 15, 2022, the company undertook new project orders of about 4 billion yuan.
Analysis and judgment:
New orders are sufficient, and the operation outperforms the industry from January to February
According to the company’s announcement, from January 1 to March 15, 2021 and 2022, the company undertook new project orders of about 13.5 billion yuan and 4 billion yuan respectively. According to the R & D cycle of the lamp industry, the project began to contribute revenue and profits after 18-24 months, and is expected to gradually enter the state of batch production by the end of 2022. In 2021, the new orders include ADB headlamp, DLP headlamp and lamp controller. The intelligent upgrading trend of lamps is gradually verified, and the development of LED lamps is continued.
Meanwhile, according to the announcement of the company’s main operating data from January to February 2022, the revenue from January to February was + 25% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent was + 5% year-on-year. According to the linear extrapolation of the growth rate from January to February, the revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company in 2022q1 are expected to be 2.39 billion yuan and 300 million yuan respectively, outperforming the growth rate of the industry by 7.5pct. It is expected that the net interest rate will be 12.6% due to the repair of production and marketing of core customers FAW Volkswagen, the increase of sales volume of FAW red flag and the large volume of Japanese new projects. It is expected that it will still be mainly affected by the lack of core and the rise in the price of raw materials, but it is significantly improved compared with 2021q3.
Benefit from intelligent upgrading of lamps and continuous optimization of product structure
Benefiting from the wave of automotive intelligence, the lights are changing from traditional functional safety parts to electronization and intelligence. The penetration rate of LED headlights continues to increase, and is gradually evolving into matrix LED, AFS, ADB and DLP functions. The interior lights of intelligent cockpit are becoming more personalized and integrated. In February 2022, in order to sign the letter of intent on intelligent vehicle light business cooperation with China, the company carried out strategic cooperation in the field of intelligent lamps and led the development of intelligent lamp industry.
The company has a full layout in terms of LEB and intelligent headlights. LED headlights are supplied to first-line car enterprises such as North South Volkswagen and FAW Toyota. ADB headlights get on FAW red flag. The supporting value of single car is expected to be more than 4000 yuan. DLP headlights will be awarded the project by the end of 2021; Pixel headlamps and rhythmic taillights with welcome function have also been successfully developed. Compared with traditional halogen or xenon headlights, the value of LED and intelligent headlights has increased significantly, and the gross profit margin is higher. In the future, with the successive production of new projects, the company’s product structure is expected to continue to be optimized.
Optimize the customer structure, base on China and aim at the world
As the leader of independent lamps, the company has gradually realized import substitution in the Chinese market by taking advantage of local R & D iteration, customer response and cost control. At present, the company has entered the supplier system of new forces and head independent brand customers and obtained projects, so as to provide a strong guarantee for future development. The Chinese market stabilizes and the company expands the global market in due time: in 2019, the company starts the construction plan of Serbian factory. The factory will be a comprehensive factory producing all kinds of lamps, with main process links such as injection molding, surface treatment and assembly. It is expected to be officially put into operation in the second quarter of 2022. Serbian factories have relatively low costs and will mainly radiate to European customers. The company’s short-term growth mainly comes from China. In the medium and long term, the company’s penetration into the global market dominated by Europe will continue to contribute new and greater increments to the company’s performance growth in the future.
Investment advice
In view of the impact of short-term industry core shortage and rising raw material prices, the company lowered its profit forecast for 20212022. It is expected that the company’s revenue in 20212023 will be adjusted from 83.29/104.84/12.864 billion yuan to 8.096104.84/12.864 billion yuan, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be adjusted from 12.19/16.92/2.103 billion yuan to 1.093/15.46/2.103 billion yuan, and the corresponding EPS will be adjusted from 4.27/5.92/7.36 yuan to 3.83/5.41/736 billion yuan, Corresponding to the closing price of 137.50 yuan / share on March 15, 2022, PE is 36 / 25 / 19 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
The sales volume of passenger car market is lower than expected; Under the influence of overseas epidemic, the expansion of new customers is less than expected; Lack of core and rising prices of raw materials; The process of globalization is not as expected.
