\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 409 Tangshan Sanyou Chemical Industries Co.Ltd(600409) )
Key investment points
The price of main products rose sharply, and the profitability of the company was significantly improved
According to the company's annual report, the company's revenue increased significantly in 2021, with a period expense rate of 10.44%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.4pct, and the inventory turnover rate and accounts receivable turnover rate increased slightly. In terms of specific business structure, affected by factors such as dual control of energy consumption and poor shipping, the sales of soda ash, viscose, caustic soda and PVC decreased by 1.75%, 12.17%, 8.11% and 14.53% respectively year-on-year in 2021, and the prices increased by 51.86%, 37.8%, 36.1% and 26.1% respectively year-on-year. During the reporting period, the company's comprehensive gross profit margin was 22.12%, with a year-on-year increase of 3.83pct. Among them, soda ash and viscose business were the core driving forces for the improvement of the company's performance. The gross profit margins of the above two businesses in 2021 were 31.47% and 11.97% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 12.94pct and 6.39pct respectively. In a single quarter, the company realized a revenue of 5.918 billion in 2021q4, down 2.5% month on month, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 149 million, down 58.13% month on month. This is mainly due to the sales volume of Q4 soda ash, viscose, caustic soda and PVC decreased by 14.74%, 17.3%, 20.95% and 39.69% month on month respectively. On the cost side, the rapid rise of raw coal, pulp, calcium carbide and other raw materials has affected the profit.
Soda ash maintains a high boom and viscose profit is expected to improve
According to the company's statistics, the capacity utilization rates of soda ash, viscose, chlor alkali and silicone industries in 2021 are 88%, 74%, 85% and 81% respectively. The new capacity of other products except silicone is limited, and the industry boom is expected to improve in 2022. According to the data of Baichuan Yingfu, the average price of light soda ash since the beginning of the year is 2400 yuan / ton, up 62% year-on-year. We expect the company's profit to remain high; The average price of viscose staple fiber is 12830 yuan / ton, down 2.77% year-on-year. According to the current price calculation, it is expected to turn around the loss. The company is the double leader of soda ash and viscose staple fiber in China, with obvious cost advantage and stable leading position. For every 100 yuan / ton increase of soda ash and viscose, the annual net profit of the company will increase by 214 million and 60 million respectively, with great performance flexibility.
Release the industrial plan of "three chain group" to open up the future growth space
According to the announcement of the company, relying on its own advantages, the company plans to invest 57 billion yuan to build the industrial layout of "three chain group" (three chain group, i.e. "two alkali and one chemical" circular economy industrial chain, organosilicon new material industrial chain, fine chemical industrial chain and "double new" strategic industrial cluster of new energy and new materials). Among them, 550000 tons of caustic soda and downstream deep processing, 300000 tons of Lyocell fiber, 400000 tons of silicone, 4gw photovoltaic power generation, 150000 tons / day seawater desalination and other projects are planned. We believe that as the company's planned projects are put into operation one after another, the industrial chain will be further extended, and the company is expected to open up space for future growth.
Profit forecast and valuation
It is estimated that the company's EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 1.08/1.29/1.42 yuan respectively, and the current price corresponding to PE will be 7.62/6.38/5.8 times respectively. The company is a double leader in soda ash and viscose, with obvious cost advantages. Capacity expansion opens up future growth space and maintains the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
The prices of raw materials and products fluctuate greatly; The epidemic situation affects the production or export of the company; Safety and environmental protection policy risks, etc.
