Core individual stock portfolio: recently recommended Hangzhou Boiler Group Co.Ltd(002534) , Robotechnik Intelligent Technology Co.Ltd(300757) , Gcl Energy Technology Co.Ltd(002015) , Shenzhen United Winners Laser Co.Ltd(688518) , Runa Smart Equipment Co.Ltd(301129) , Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) , Qingdao Gaoce Technology Co.Ltd(688556) , Shenzhen Cotran New Material Co.Ltd(300731) , Hunan Baili Engineering Sci & Tech Co.Ltd(603959) , Pnc Process Systems Co.Ltd(603690) , Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) , Zhejiang Hangke Technology Incorporated Company(688006) , Fujian Nebula Electronics.Ltd(300648) , Beijing Tianyishangjia New Material Corp.Ltd(688033) , Shuangliang Eco-Energy Systems Co.Ltd(600481) , Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) , Hangjin Technology Co.Ltd(000818) etc.
Special research this week: from January to November 2021, the sales volume of medium Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles was 2.928 million units, with a year-on-year increase of 179% and a penetration rate of 12.5%, of which the monthly penetration rate in November was about 18%, of which Wuling Hongguang Mini ranked first in the industry with 344000 units due to its high cost performance. According to the prediction of China Automobile Association, in 2022, China's total automobile sales volume will be 27.5 million, with a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, of which the sales volume of new energy vehicles will be 5 million, with a year-on-year increase of 47%, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will be about 18.2%. In 2022, the subsidy standard will decline by 30% on the basis of 2021, and urban public transport and other qualified vehicles will decline by 20% on the basis of 2021. At present, the increase in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles has been driven by the industry endogenous, which will not affect the increase in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles. We expect that Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles will account for 33% in 2025. With the gradual approach of the performance disclosure period, we believe that the subdivided industrial chains such as lithium battery equipment and liquid cooling board have ushered in performance fulfillment, from order driven valuation to high profit growth, and the superimposed industry demand continues to increase rapidly. We are optimistic about the high-quality companies in the relevant industrial chain, such as Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) , Shenzhen United Winners Laser Co.Ltd(688518) , Zhejiang Hangke Technology Incorporated Company(688006) , Yinbang Clad Material Co.Ltd(300337) , Shenzhen Cotran New Material Co.Ltd(300731) .
Key tracking industries:
Lithium battery equipment resonates with the global production capacity cycle. It is expected that the demand will exceed 100 billion yuan in 2025. Chinese equipment companies have obvious advantages and are fully optimistic about the first and second tier leaders with advantages in technology, products and scale;
For photovoltaic equipment, the iterative upgrading of equipment promotes the cost reduction of the industrial chain, and the penetration rate of hjt increases rapidly. At the same time, the decline in the price of photovoltaic raw materials is expected to stimulate downstream demand, and we are optimistic about the leaders of battery chips and module equipment;
Energy storage: energy storage is the necessary foundation for building a new power grid. Policies are favorable, power generation and user side promote the prosperity of the industry, and are optimistic about leading companies in battery, inverter, integration and other links;
Semiconductor equipment is expected to meet us industry demand in 2030, reaching US $140 billion. Chinese mainland accounts for a larger share but the localization rate is still low. We hope that the platform companies and domestic alternatives will soon break through.
Automation, industrial consumables with a wide range of downstream applications, with a market scale of about 40 billion, which is expected to reach 55.7 billion yuan in 2026. It is optimistic about the industry leaders benefiting from the improvement of concentration and import substitution;
Hydrogen energy and green hydrogen meet the requirements of carbon neutralization. The rapid development of photovoltaic and wind power lays the foundation for photovoltaic hydrogen production and wind power hydrogen production. We are optimistic about the leading companies with the advantages of green hydrogen industrial chain integration;
For construction machinery, it is expected that the industry sales volume Q4 will have a negative year-on-year growth, and the strong will always be strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the industry leaders and be optimistic about the complete machine and parts companies with product, scale and cost advantages.
The sales volume of medium Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles is growing rapidly, and the penetration rate is expected to accelerate. According to the data of China Federation of passenger cars and China Automobile Association, the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles from January to November 2021 was 2.928 million, with a year-on-year increase of 179% and a penetration rate of 12.5%, of which the monthly penetration rate in November was about 18%, of which Wuling Hongguang mini (A00) ranked first in the industry with 344000 vehicles due to its high cost performance.
It is estimated that the annual sales volume of new energy vehicles will exceed 5 million in 2022. According to the prediction of China Automobile Association, in 2022, China's total automobile sales volume will be 27.5 million, with a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, of which the sales volume of new energy vehicles will be 5 million, with a year-on-year increase of 47%, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will be about 18.2%.
The decline of subsidies is in line with expectations and does not change the logic of long-term increase of permeability. In 2022, the subsidy standard will decline by 30% on the basis of 2021, and urban public transport and other qualified vehicles will decline by 20% on the basis of 2021. At present, the increase in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles has been driven by the industry endogenous, which will not affect the increase in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles. We expect that Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles will account for 33% in 2025.
The industry chain related to new energy vehicles is about to usher in a performance cashing period. From January to April, with the gradual approach of the performance disclosure period, we believe that the subdivided industrial chains such as lithium battery equipment and liquid cooling board ushered in performance fulfillment, from order driven valuation to high profit growth, and the superimposed industry demand continued to increase rapidly. We are optimistic that high-quality companies in relevant industrial chains will usher in Davis double-click.
Liquid cooling plate is one of the most critical parts in battery liquid cooling and heat management system. The liquid cooling plate transfers excess heat through the circulating flow of coolant in the liquid flow channel, so as to realize the cooling function.
Liquid cooling plate can be divided into harmonica tube type, expansion type and brazing type. The blowing type has the advantages of low cost, heat exchange effect and high production efficiency. The brazing type has certain advantages in structure, weight and heat dissipation capacity.
The demand for passenger cars and energy storage is superimposed, and the market is expected to usher in an explosion. In addition to power batteries, with the increase of liquid cooling permeability in the field of energy storage, the demand for liquid cooling plates further increases. According to the relevant announcement of Shenzhen Cotran New Material Co.Ltd(300731) , the total annual output value of one power battery brazed liquid cooling plate (estimated production capacity of 800000 sets / year) and one energy storage inflatable liquid cooling plate (estimated production capacity of 1.5 million sets / year) is expected to be about 800 million yuan.
The liquid cooling plate industry chain is expected to benefit fully. With the large demand of downstream, on the one hand, the supply of upstream aluminum heat transfer materials is relatively limited. On the other hand, liquid cooling plates have the characteristics of small batch and multiple varieties. Specific categories and models of downstream are expected to achieve the scale effect of production.
Related subjects: Shanghai Huafon Aluminium Corporation(601702) (liquid cooling plate raw materials), Yinbang Clad Material Co.Ltd(300337) (liquid cooling plate raw materials), Shenzhen Cotran New Material Co.Ltd(300731) (entering the Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) supply chain), Shenzhen Frd Science & Technology Co.Ltd(300602) (signing a supply agreement with Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) ).
Photovoltaic: 1) multiple projects of hjt have been implemented, the technology of photovoltaic equipment enterprises has made continuous breakthroughs, and the demand resonates with technology, promoting the high prosperity growth of photovoltaic industry. It is suggested to pay attention to: Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) , Shenzhen S.C New Energy Technology Corporation(300724) , etc. 2) The price of photovoltaic upstream raw materials may stabilize and fall, which is expected to stimulate the demand of downstream links. Suggestions: Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) etc.
Energy storage: both power generation side and user side energy storage ushered in favorable policies to promote the all-round development of energy storage. 1) Power generation side: on August 10, the notice on encouraging renewable energy power generation enterprises to build or purchase peak shaving capacity to increase the scale of grid connection was issued, which proposed market-oriented grid connection for the first time. For the scale beyond the guaranteed grid connection, the peak shaving capacity shall be allocated according to the linkage ratio of 15% (more than 4 hours), and the priority grid connection shall be allocated according to the linkage ratio of more than 20%, pumped storage Electrochemical energy storage is recognized as peak shaving resource, which is opened for energy storage on the power generation side. 2) Time of use electricity price is fully implemented on the user side, and the price difference between peak and valley is up to 3-4 times, so as to further promote the development of energy storage on the user side. Fujian Nebula Electronics.Ltd(300648) is China's leading supplier of intelligent manufacturing solutions with lithium battery detection system as the core. It carries out strategic cooperation with leading enterprises in lithium battery and energy storage industry and promotes a series of products of integrated storage, charging and inspection energy storage power stations. Shenzhen Cotran New Material Co.Ltd(300731) has entered the Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) supplier system by cutting into new energy vehicles and energy storage tracks through liquid cooling plate. With the continuous improvement of downstream demand, it is expected to increase in large quantities in the future.
Lithium battery equipment: 1) double click on China's foreign policies, and the demand for lithium battery equipment is further rising. On August 5, President Biden of the United States signed an executive order setting the target of zero emission vehicle sales accounting for 50% of the total new vehicle sales in 2030. In addition, China's Political Bureau meeting in July proposed to support the accelerated development of new energy vehicles, further confirmed the high view of the track, and significantly increased the expected demand for lithium battery equipment. With strong terminal demand, mainstream battery manufacturers have successfully raised funds and fixed-point orders from car manufacturers, which has significantly accelerated the production expansion of battery factories, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Samsung SDI, ski and other battery factories outside China have made great progress in production expansion, and the industry boom has accelerated upward. 2) Catl's refinancing of 58.2 billion yuan is conducive to maintaining high capital expenditure intensity, accelerating the implementation of production expansion plan and driving the rapid growth of orders of its core equipment suppliers. At the same time, catl's rapid expansion of production has further boosted the prosperity of the industry and further established the formation of the seller's market of lithium battery equipment. We judge that the leading companies of lithium battery equipment with technical and product advantages will occupy a larger market share: 1) due to the advantages of scale, the leading companies of lithium battery equipment can realize mass and rapid delivery to meet the needs of customers; 2) The customer stickiness of the equipment is strong; 3) Battery technology iteration, follow customers to upgrade products. It is suggested to pay attention to: Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) , Zhejiang Hangke Technology Incorporated Company(688006) , Shenzhen United Winners Laser Co.Ltd(688518) , Shenzhen Hymson Laser Intelligent Equipments Co.Ltd(688559) , Guangdong Lyric Robot Automation Co.Ltd(688499) , Shanghai Sk Automation Technology Co.Ltd(688155) , Suzhou Slac Precision Equipment Co.Ltd(300382) .
Construction machinery: it is expected that the sales volume of Q4 in the industry will increase negatively year-on-year, and the strong will always be strong. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading companies. Recommended concerns: Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) , Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co.Ltd(601100) , Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science And Technology Co.Ltd(000157) etc.
Semiconductor equipment: the global semiconductor equipment market will double in the next decade, and domestic substitution is a long-term, sustained and inevitable trend: 1) according to the Amat performance meeting, the scale of the semiconductor industry is expected to reach US $trillion in 2030. Even according to the current capital intensity of 14%, the equipment demand will reach US $140 billion, compared with us $61.2 billion in 2020. 2) in 2020, Chinese mainland became the largest market for semiconductor equipment for the first time in the world. 2021Q1, the shipment volume of Chinese mainland is 5 billion 960 million US dollars, a 19% increase of the ring, an increase of 70% over the same period last year, next only to Korea. 3) Under the Wassenaar system, the safety of China's semiconductor equipment and materials needs to be improved, and the localization rate is still low. It is suggested to pay attention to: Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc.China(688012) , Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) , Beijing Huafeng Test & Control Technology Co.Ltd(688200) , Hangzhou Chang Chuan Technology Co.Ltd(300604) , Wuhan Jingce Electronic Group Co.Ltd(300567) , Kingsemi Co.Ltd(688037) , Shanghai Wanye Enterprises Co.Ltd(600641) , Pnc Process Systems Co.Ltd(603690) , etc.
Automation: cutting tools are "industrial teeth", and their performance directly affects workpiece quality and production efficiency. According to China Machine Tool Industry Association, the market scale of China's cutting tools is about 40 billion yuan, and it is expected that the market scale will reach 55.7 billion yuan by 2026. The market competition pattern is scattered, and Cr5 is less than 10%; And more than 1 / 3 of the market is occupied by foreign brands. Cutting tools are industrial consumables with wide downstream application fields, and the market demand for stock is relatively stable. With the improvement of industry concentration and the substitution of import links, leading enterprises are expected to usher in high-speed growth opportunities. It is recommended to pay attention to Zhuzhou Huarui Precision Cutting Tools.Co.Ltd(688059) , Oke Precision Cutting Tools Co.Ltd(688308) .
Carbon neutralization: 1) 100 billion market scale in power exchange field is taking shape; 2) The launch of the national carbon trading system is imminent, and the carbon trading market is expected to rise both in volume and price. It is suggested to pay attention to Gcl Energy Technology Co.Ltd(002015) , the beneficial object of mobile power exchange and carbon trading. The company has low electricity price cost and has advantages in cutting into the field of mobile energy; With 20 million carbon assets, carbon trading is expected to bring new performance growth.
Hydrogen energy: Green hydrogen meets the requirements of carbon neutralization. With the rapid development of photovoltaic and wind power, it is optimistic about photovoltaic hydrogen production and wind power hydrogen production. It is suggested to pay attention to: Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Yangming intelligent, Beijing Sinohytec Co.Ltd(688339) , etc.
Risk statement
New technology development is less than expected
Overseas market expansion is less than expected
Overseas recovery is less than expected, and China's demand is less than expected
Price fluctuation of raw materials
Blocked parts supply
Product and technology iterations and upgrades are less than expected
The customer's production expansion is less than expected
Hjt technology has not progressed as expected.
