Market performance:
In the current period (December 27, 2021-december 31, 2021), the non bank (Shenwan) index was + 1.28%, ranking 19 / 31 in the industry, and the brokerage II index was + 1.54%;
Shanghai Composite Index + 0.60%, Shenzhen Component Index + 1.00%, gem index + 0.78%.
The top five stocks in terms of rise and fall: Hongta Securities Co.Ltd(601236) (+ 6.05%), Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) (+ 3.97%), Southwest Securities Co.Ltd(600369) (+ 3.52%), Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) (+ 3.50%), Shanghai Chinafortune Co.Ltd(600621) (+ 3.36%);
Individual stocks ranked the top five in terms of rise and fall: Northeast Securities Co.Ltd(000686) (- 3.83%), Chinalin Securities Co.Ltd(002945) (- 1.59%), East Money Information Co.Ltd(300059) (- 0.54%), China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) (+ 0.45%), Caitong Securities Co.Ltd(601108) (+ 0.45%).
Core view
In 2021, the turnover of A-Shares reached a number of record highs. As of December 31, the turnover of A-share market reached 257.18 trillion yuan, surpassing 253.30 trillion yuan in 2015, becoming the highest turnover in history. There were 149 trading days in the whole year, with a turnover of more than trillion, more than 115 days in 2015, compared with 48 trading days in 2020. The main reasons for this phenomenon are as follows:
First, the market style changes frequently, and the quantitative fund frequently adjusts its position. In 2021, the number of institutional investors continued to rise, and the fund scale expanded rapidly. According to the statistics of China Foundation Association, as of November 2021, the number and scale of private equity fund management funds increased by 28.27% and 24.01% respectively year-on-year, up 11.74pct and 8.22pct compared with the same period last year. The number, share and scale of public funds increased by 17.59%, 32.33% and 35.04% respectively year-on-year, with growth rates of -4.06pct, 10.01pct and 3.00pct respectively compared with the same period last year. At the same time, in 2021, A-Shares showed a shock pattern, the market style changed frequently, the structural differentiation was more significant, and the position adjustment and stock exchange of quantitative funds were more frequent, resulting in an increase in transaction volume.
Second, the rapid expansion of market capacity. On the one hand, the policy of “housing without speculation” has led to the gradual transfer of residents’ funds invested in the real estate market to the stock market. On the other hand, in the process of the reform of the real economy such as the continuous support of hard science and technology enterprises in the capital market and the “specialized and special new” manufacturing industry, the registration system of science and innovation board and gem has been gradually improved in the past two years, And the opening of the Beijing stock exchange has rapidly increased the number of listed companies and the total market value of a shares. As of December 31, there were 4684 listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen, a year-on-year increase of 12.06%, an increase of 31.31% compared with 2018 before the implementation of the registration system; The circulating share capital of A-Shares reached 6.04 trillion shares, a year-on-year increase of 7.70%, an increase of 23.89% over 2018. The total market value of A-Shares reached 96.50 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 14.09%, an increase of 101.80% over 2018. On the whole, the capacity of A-Shares is in a period of rapid expansion. Combined with the high probability of landing of the comprehensive registration system in 2022, the transaction volume of trillion level will gradually become normalized in the future.
In the past, securities companies were closely related to the market because of their main agency trading business, investment banking business and self-supporting business, β The property is strong, but from the performance of securities companies in 2021, it is weaker than the market as a whole. Excluding the secondary new shares Caida Securities Co.Ltd(600906) , only 8 of the 41 listed securities companies have achieved positive growth this year. Among them, only 4 securities companies rose by more than 10%, namely Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) (55.77%), East Money Information Co.Ltd(300059) (43.88%), Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) (30.04%) and China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) (15.60%). It can be seen that wealth management, as a key development track of securities companies, is gradually reflecting its anti cyclical role in raising the valuation of securities companies. The top securities companies such as Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) , Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) , East Money Information Co.Ltd(300059) , China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) are all securities companies with strong wealth management strength. Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) , Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) and China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) participate in holding the head fund company respectively, and the fund company makes a great contribution to the profits. East Money Information Co.Ltd(300059) has strong customer acquisition advantages for long tail customers with the help of its Internet platform advantages. At present, there will be no fundamental change in the overall trend of real estate pressure reduction policy, the migration trend of residents’ wealth remains unchanged, the continuous development of innovative products such as superimposed fund investment advisers and securities settlement funds, as well as the release of venture capital, participation in securities lending, pilot optimization of account management functions of securities companies and the implementation of a number of good wealth management policies, The transformation of wealth management is still the main direction of the development of securities companies. At present, the wealth management of securities companies mainly focuses on selling financial products on a commission basis. In the short term, they are still optimistic about holding head fund companies and securities companies with high fund holdings, such as Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) .
At the same time, the profit model of investment banking has changed. In 2022, there is a high probability that the comprehensive registration system will be implemented, and the business model of securities companies’ investment banking business is also changing. On the one hand, the support for the real economy of small and medium-sized enterprises has brought a large number of reserve projects to securities companies and investment banks, and the dividends of follow-up investment business have gradually become prominent. At the same time, the high requirements of the registration system for pricing ability are better for head securities companies with strong comprehensive strength in investment research and other fields. Most importantly, with the development of wealth management business of various securities companies, in addition to direct financing, the investment banking department also undertakes the entrance and important service links of developing and attracting high net worth customers. It is recommended to pay attention to the head securities companies with undervalued value, such as Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) .
Risk tips: strengthened supervision, policy risk, market fluctuation and repeated epidemic situation
