Investment suggestion: performance elasticity and valuation elasticity
Performance elasticity
1. Bottom reversal - high proportion of batteries / bulk materials companies: optimistic about [Ningde], [ Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) ], [ Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) ], [ Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co.Ltd(002850) ] and [Tuopu]
Battery: 1) profit elasticity: unit profit is at the bottom of history, and it can rise to the bottom when looking back; 2) Spatial elasticity: the trend of global electrification has been strengthened again and again, and energy storage has added the second highest growth engine.
The proportion of bulk materials in cost is high: 1) the price of bulk materials rises, and the price of raw materials is at a historical high, which will gradually drop in the future; 2) The operating leverage is obvious, and it is expected to increase both volume and profit.
2. Integrated construction of medium-term barriers
Why should material factories be integrated? Battery factories have strong bargaining power over materials, forcing material enterprises to reduce costs and enhance the profit chain of the industrial chain. The development of materials depends on technology competition in the early stage and cost competition in the long term.
Ternary integration - Huayou & Zhongwei: 1) industrial trend: leading technology is unsustainable, and reducing cost and expanding profit is the only solution; 2) Industrial chain profit distribution: the higher the upstream ROIC. It is recommended to pay attention to the rapid layout of nickel integration. Target: Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) (non-ferrous coverage): the nickel project has the highest production capacity, and the technical shortcomings of precursor products are constantly supplemented. Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) : the nickel project has proved the strength of the company's metal smelting to the market, and the technical iteration speed of precursor products is better than that of peers.
Negative electrode - Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) & beiteri: 1) Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) : at present, the integration is the most advanced. Graphitization was arranged in 17-18 years (the self supply proportion of graphitization was as high as 90%), needle coke was arranged in 19 years, self built carbonization production line was established, and the whole process integration was blooming and fruiting in Sichuan in 22 years. 2) Beiteri: accelerate the integration of layout (graphitization + needle coke) and further reduce the cost of continuous graphitization.
Electrolyte - Tianci: Tianci focuses on two links: solute and additive. The main reasons are as follows: 1) the cost of solute: 6F is relatively high (about 50%), and the cycle fluctuation is large. 2) Additives: due to the increased requirements for high voltage, high safety and high stability, additives are becoming more and more important, and their proportion in the cost of electrolyte is increasing year by year.
Diaphragm - Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) : leading the expansion speed of peers, ensuring the competitiveness of base membrane, taking the lead in realizing mass production and supply of online coating, forming the integration of base membrane coating.
3. The gap between supply and demand brings price elasticity
Copper foil: 1) Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) : optimistic about the elasticity of price increase + the decline of single ton financial cost caused by scale improvement, and optimistic about the large volume of overseas customers in the medium and long term; 2) Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) : optimistic about price elasticity + single ton profit of leading peers, from conservative to accelerated production expansion, and optimistic about the transformation of the company's business strategy.
Diaphragm: subject to the supply bottleneck of core equipment, the dimension of supply and demand is tight in the next two years, and the single level profit is expected to rise. It is recommended to pay attention to [ Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) ] and [ Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) ].
Valuation elasticity
Industrial trend - large cylinder / high voltage, and the two are mutually reinforcing industrial trends
1. Large cylinder:
Battery companies: [ Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) ] (planned 12gwh), [ Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) ] (it has been announced that 20gwh, 22h1 has started construction, and 4680 progress is at the forefront).
Material company: the core logic is that we believe that the launch of 4680 battery is to pursue higher energy density and seek the reduction of single wh cost from the technical level. The progress of 4680 is closely related to high-performance materials, such as silicon cathode and single wall carbon tube. Therefore, we recommend high-performance material industry chain: high nickel - [ Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) ], [ Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) ], other concerns [ Hunan Changyuan Lico Co.Ltd(688779) ], [ Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) ], [ Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) ], Silicon based negative electrode - [ China Baoan Group Co.Ltd(000009) ] (beiteri), carbon nanotube - [ Jiangsu Cnano Technology Co.Ltd(688116) ], lifsi - [ Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) ], structural member - [ Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co.Ltd(002850) ].
2. High voltage
Batteries, power devices (electronic control, OBC, DC-DC), air conditioning compressor & PTC, components (capacitors, relays, fuses, capacitors), connectors, etc. will be upgraded / used more.
Semiconductor material: silicon carbide SiC has the advantages of high frequency, high efficiency and small volume, and is expected to increase with the permeability of 800V platform. It is recommended to pay attention to [ Sanan Optoelectronics Co.Ltd(600703) ], [ Starpower Semiconductor Ltd(603290) ] and [CRRC Zhuzhou Crrc Times Electric Co.Ltd(688187) ].
Power devices: with the application of silicon carbide, the software and hardware of power devices will also be upgraded. It is recommended to pay attention to electric drive systems companies [ Shenzhen Inovance Technology Co.Ltd(300124) ], [ Shinry Technologies Co.Ltd(300745) ], [inbor], [ Jing-Jin Electric Technologies Co.Ltd(688280) ].
Components and parts: it is recommended to enhance the elasticity of new energy under the trend of high voltage (ASP improvement) + small parts segmentation faucets with good pattern: [ Hongfa Technology Co.Ltd(600885) ] and [ Xi'An Sinofuse Electric Co.Ltd(301031) ], and it is recommended to pay attention to [ Xiamen Faratronic Co.Ltd(600563) ] and [ Poco Holding Co.Ltd(300811) ].
Connector & high performance copper: connector enterprises [ Suzhou Recodeal Interconnect System Co.Ltd(688800) ] that are optimistic about the layout of high voltage and high current products, and alloy material enterprises [ Ningbo Boway Alloy Material Co.Ltd(601137) ] that break through the overseas monopoly of high-end copper
Risk tip: the sales volume of electric vehicles is lower than expected, the price rise of upstream resources is higher than expected, the capacity release is lower than expected, the price promotion of lifsi is lower than expected, the change of supply-demand relationship is higher than expected, and the calculation is subjective
