Zhou's view: the industry has reached the time point of short-term comprehensive layout and attaches importance to the post cycle
(1) Long term growth, layout when questioning.
The marketization of new energy leads to the improvement of growth certainty. It is expected that there will be more than five to eight times the penetration rate of electric vehicles and photovoltaic in the future, and the overvalued value of the industry is expected to remain for a long time. At present, there are short-term layout time points: the expectation of U.S. policy support is questioned, and the valuation has reached a reasonable position.
(2) In the medium term, it is cyclical, and the layout is when supply and demand deteriorate.
The new energy industry has a supply and demand cycle of about five years. In 2022, it will enter the third stage of the upward cycle. In the next year, there will be three directions: return to core growth, post cycle and new technology. At present, there is a short-term layout time point: short-term mismatch between supply and demand of lithium carbonate. Risk point: the real deterioration of supply and demand is expected from 2023 to 2024; Exceeding the expected point: the permeability accelerates upward and lengthens the cycle.
(3) In the short term, the volatility is arranged at the low point of volume and price.
From the perspective of short-term volume and price, the low level of photovoltaic is more clear. At present, there is a short-term layout time point: the component price has dropped to a relatively low point, leading to the positive feedback of downstream demand, which is expected to be reflected in January 2022. It is suggested to configure downstream power stations and components, new technologies and leaders in all links in turn; The upper limit point of price increase of lithium battery is expected to appear in the first quarter of 2022, and the growth will be further highlighted after the limit value. It is suggested to arrange according to the growth barriers (lithium battery, lithium, diaphragm, etc.).
The introduction of new power system regulations is conducive to the expansion of China's large-scale energy storage
The core dilemma of energy storage development lies in the lack of a reasonable business model. Policies such as the regulations on the management of power grid connected operation and the measures for the management of power auxiliary services of the national energy administration can effectively supplement the varieties of auxiliary services, clarify the compensation mechanism and cost sharing principle, clarify the participation mode and mechanism of energy storage in power auxiliary, and further straighten out its business development model.
The new energy storage is included in the auxiliary service body, and the compensation mechanism and sharing mechanism are defined in terms of cost bearing. The compensation mechanism is a combination of fixed compensation and market-oriented compensation. In terms of allocation, it is clear that the compensation costs of power auxiliary services serving the generation side and the user side are borne by their respective subjects.
We believe that this will reduce the pressure on the generation side to bear the system cost to a certain extent, and is conducive to the rapid improvement of the scale of the energy storage system on the generation side.
Sector and company tracking
New energy vehicle industry: in 2022, China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery shipment is expected to exceed 450gwh
New energy automobile company: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) plans to invest in the construction of power battery manufacturing base
Photovoltaic industry level: the price of silicon wafer has been lowered again, and the IPO registration of Jingke energy has been approved by the CSRC
Photovoltaic company level: Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) intends to invest in single crystal cell project and Risen Energy Co.Ltd(300118) in incremental distribution network project
At the level of wind energy industry: wind power projects are subject to centralized bidding, and many wind power projects are connected to the grid
Risk tips: the development of new technologies exceeds expectations, the demand is lower than expectations, and the competition in the new energy market is intensified
