Core view: the plate trend is upward, and the layout of four main lines is preferred
From December 27 to December 31, the food and beverage index decreased by 4.6%, ranking 28th in the primary sub industry, about 5.0pct lower than Shanghai and Shenzhen 300. Among the sub industries, meat products (1.3%), health products (1.2%) and soft drinks (1.1%) are relatively leading. This week Baijiu Baijiu ETF dividends, liquor prices are expected to cool down and other factors, Baijiu a big decline, leading to the overall loss of the overall market. In 2021, the food and beverage index fell by about 6.0%, ranking the fifth from the bottom of the plate, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.8pct. After the epidemic in 2021, the cyclical economic fluctuation led to weak consumer demand. The platform channel dominated by community group purchase impacted the original traditional channel system. At the same time, the increase of the cost and price of most raw materials squeezed the profit space and disturbed the operation of enterprises. The overall market performance of the food and beverage industry was weaker than the market due to the contraction of plate valuation in the whole year. Looking forward to 2022, we will observe positive factors: the factors of channel disturbance gradually converge; The fundamentals of most popular products bottomed out in 2021q2, and the market demand recovered slowly; The cost rise has been transmitted to the downstream; The valuation has been gradually repaired after shrinking. For the 2022 plate market, we should take an optimistic look: first, we should closely follow the main line of consumption upgrading, and we should also arrange Baijiu, especially the high-end and secondary high-end price bands. On the other hand, it is strategically optimistic that the transition of the price belt of the beer sector will bring opportunities for the release of enterprise profits. Second, pay attention to the theme of price transmission and layout price increasing varieties, such as condiments; Third, pay attention to the investment opportunities brought by Rural Revitalization under the background of common prosperity. Fourth, in 2021, some industries are in business difficulties due to the impact of base, epidemic situation and channel structure transformation. A reversal is expected in 2022, focusing on opportunities in the snack food industry.
Recommended combination: Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) and Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288)
(1) Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) cancel the unpacking policy of Feitian Maotai liquor, and the price difference between the original case and the bulk bottle is expected to narrow, which is conducive to the development of marketization. The price increase of Maotai liquor is expected to rise. Considering the supply of base liquor, the planned revenue target is expected to accelerate in 2022. The company has room to move calmly in terms of volume and price, and the logic of simultaneous rise of volume and price in the future is smooth. (2) Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) recently, the wholesale price has rebounded, the channel inventory is low, and the shipment is stable compared with the previous period. Considering the changes of quotas inside and outside the plan and the promotion of classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , it is expected to achieve double-digit growth at a high rate in 2022. (3) Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) the rapid growth shows the strong fundamentals of the company. The media reported that the company will usher in a new direction of development. The company has profound brand heritage, mature mechanism and team, and it is a long-term trend to realize the return of the brand to the high-end. (4) Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) the price increase has a positive impact on costs and channel profits. The condiment industry is slowly repaired, and the company also shows a recovery trend. Considering the price increase, it is expected to return to the normal growth level in 2022. Proposed layout and long-term holding.
Plate Market Review: Food and beverage underperformed the market
From December 27 to December 31, the food and beverage index decreased by 4.6%, ranking 28th in the primary sub industry, about 5.0pct lower than Shanghai and Shenzhen 300. Among the sub industries, meat products (1.3%), health products (1.2%) and soft drinks (1.1%) are relatively leading. In terms of individual stocks, Star Lake Bioscience Co.Inc.Zhaoqing Guangdong(600866) , Springsnow Food Group Co.Ltd(605567) , Zhejiang Huatong Meat Products Co.Ltd(002840) led the increase; Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) , Jinhui Liquor Co.Ltd(603919) , Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) and others led the decline.
Risk tips: economic downturn, food safety, fluctuations in raw material prices, lower than expected recovery in consumer demand, etc.
