Electrical equipment 12537 rose 3.4%, stronger than the market. This week (from December 27 to December 31, the same below), photovoltaic rose 7.68%, power generation equipment rose 6.03%, lithium battery rose 3.82%, new energy vehicles rose 2.23%, nuclear power rose 1.37%, wind power rose 0.4%, industrial control automation rose 0%, and power generation and power grid fell 0.88%. The top five increases were Capital Airlines energy saving, Chengdu Xuguang Electronics Co.Ltd(600353) , Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) , Shenzhen Sunrise New Energy Co.Ltd(002256) , Fujian Nebula Electronics.Ltd(300648) ; The top five declines were Lanzhou Greatwall Electrical Co.Ltd(600192) , Chongqing Fuling Electric Power Industrial Co.Ltd(600452) , Guodian Nanjing Automation Co.Ltd(600268) , Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) , Xj Electric Co.Ltd(000400) .
Industry level: electric vehicles: Beijing passenger car Index Office: the index of new energy passenger cars will increase to 70000 in 2022; Four sectors: in 2022, the subsidy for new energy vehicles will decline by 30% on the basis of 2021; LG energy plans to raise the price of power battery by 10% in 2022; The price of China’s Tesla Model 3 / y entry-level model increased by up to 21000 yuan; The price of new energy exclusive vehicle insurance soared in 2022; The first sodium ion battery 1GWh mass production line was officially settled in Fuyang and put into operation in 2022; The first battery of northvolt Sweden factory went offline; China Innovation Airlines plans to go to Hong Kong for listing; Metal cobalt is quoted at 495000 yuan / ton, this week + 1.0%, nickel is quoted at 154200 yuan / ton, this week + 2.3%, manganese is quoted at 39250 yuan / ton, this week – 0.6%, metal lithium is quoted at 1.48 million yuan / ton, this week + 21.3%, battery grade lithium carbonate is quoted at 282400 yuan / ton, this week + 9.7%, lithium hydroxide is quoted at 229900 yuan / ton, this week + 8.5%, electrolyte is quoted at 120000 yuan / ton, this week 0%, The price of cobalt trioxide precursor is 392500 yuan / ton, this week + 2.6%, the price of ternary 523 cathode is 262500 yuan / ton, this week + 3.1%, the price of ternary 622 cathode is 265500 yuan / ton, this week + 3.9%, and the price of ternary 811 cathode is 282500 yuan / ton, this week + 4.1%. New energy: according to the forecast of Zhihui PV, the installed capacity in China may exceed 25gw in December 2021, totaling more than 60GW in the whole year, greatly exceeding the market expectation; Jiangsu Provincial Government: build 20 million square meters of green buildings and 1000 green factories; SASAC: central enterprises will account for more than 50% of the installed capacity of renewable energy power generation in 2025; With a total investment of 7 billion yuan, Jingneng clean energy plans to invest in 1GW scenery hydrogen production and wind storage projects; Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) : 13GW of pull rod project cooperated with Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) will be put into operation in the first half of 2022; This week’s monocrystalline silicon material is 230 yuan / kg, with a month on month ratio of – 2.13%; The quotation of single crystal silicon wafer 166 / 182 / 210mm is 4.95/5.8/8 yuan / piece, with a flat month on month ratio of / 0.35% / – 2.44%; The quotation of single crystal perc166 battery was 1.05 yuan / W, unchanged month on month; The quotation of single crystal perc module is 1.85 yuan / W, with a month on month ratio of – 4.15%; Glass 3.2mm/2.0mm, quotation 26 / 20 yuan / flat. Industrial Control & Power Grid: manufacturing pmi50 in December 3. On a month on month basis, + 0.2pct was located on the boom and bust line for two consecutive months, of which large / medium / small enterprises were 51.3 / 51.3 / 46.5 respectively, and on a month on month basis, + 1.1pct / + 0.1pct / – 2pct respectively.
Company level: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) : it is proposed to invest in the construction of phase VII to phase X of Yibin power battery manufacturing base in Yibin, Sichuan, with a total investment of ≤ 24 billion yuan; Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) : it is proposed to set up a subsidiary to invest in the construction of a lithium battery electrolyte project with an annual output of 200000 tons, with a total investment of 820 million yuan; Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) : sign a cooperation agreement with Xiamen Xiangyu Co.Ltd(600057) to establish long-term close cooperation in the fields of raw material supply guarantee, nickel resource development cooperation and supply chain guarantee cooperation; Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) : the subsidiary plans to build 20000 t / a PVDF and 45000 T / a R142b projects in Ruyuan, with a total investment of about 1.4 billion yuan; Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) : it is proposed to purchase 100% equity of Anhui Dahua Dongfang mining and 100% equity of Anhui Sanli mining; Shandong Shida Shenghua Chemical Group Company Limite(603026) : 1) Shenghua new energy, a subsidiary, plans to invest in the 100000 t / a methyl ethyl carbonate unit project, with a total investment of 487 million yuan, plans to invest in the 11000 T / a additive project, with a total investment of 280 million yuan and plans to invest in the 20000 t / a silicon-based cathode project, with an estimated total investment of 733 million yuan; 2) The subsidiary Shandong Shida Shenghua Chemical Group Company Limite(603026) (Quanzhou) plans to invest in a 40000 t / a battery grade vinyl carbonate refining project with a total investment of 16.1 million yuan; Hunan Changyuan Lico Co.Ltd(688779) : the long-term new energy of the subsidiary plans to invest in the construction of lithium iron phosphate cathode material project with an annual output of 60000 tons, with a total investment of about 2.088 billion yuan.
Investment strategy: in December, the sales volume of China’s mainstream automobile enterprises continued to rise. We expect that the overall sales volume will exceed 500000, the annual sales volume will exceed 3.5 million, 2 + million in Europe, nearly 650000 in the United States, and a total of more than 6 million in the world; In the new car cycle in 2022, the global sales volume exceeded 9 million, an increase of 50% +. In terms of the industrial chain, although the price of lithium carbonate is upward, the downstream leaders have stable procurement channels, which can basically meet the demand. In January 2022, the production scheduling continued to increase by 5% month on month. In 2022q1, the off-season was not light, and the month on month was flat. Throughout the year, battery enterprises generally reported that orders were full and nearly doubled. From the perspective of supply and demand pattern, lithium, graphitization, PVDF, diaphragm and copper foil continue to be tense. We expect it to continue until 2022. In 2022, the volume and profit will still rise; In the battery segment, the price will be renegotiated in Q4 in 2021. We expect that the price increase will be strong. Some second-line battery enterprises have adjusted the price by 10%. We expect that the leader is expected to follow. Therefore, the profitability of the battery segment will hit the bottom in mid-2022; Meanwhile, the battery technology route will continue to upgrade in 2022, and 4680 and lithium manganese iron phosphate are expected to start mass production, driving the upgrading of the industrial chain; In terms of valuation, the number of leaders in 2022 is generally 40-50 times. Our performance doubled in 2022 and continues to be optimistic. We strongly recommend the global leader in the middle reaches of lithium battery and the leader in lithium resources. The importance and commitment of China, Europe and the United States to carbon emissions will accelerate the process of photovoltaic from auxiliary energy to main energy. However, the excessive rise of silicon material has increased the cost pressure, the quotation of components exceeds 2 yuan / W, and the production scheduling and market demand of components are challenged in the short term. In the short term, the price of silicon wafers has loosened, indicating that the negative feedback from the downstream has been transmitted upward to silicon wafers. We expect silicon wafers to take the lead in reducing prices to promote the upward production scheduling. China has gradually built up n supporting policies centered on 3060, further built a “1 + n” policy system, and promoted the development of centralized and distributed markets by large scenic base + the whole county. From 2022 to 2023, it will form a scale of about 180gw. The opinions on carbon peak and carbon neutralization have been officially released. The “1 + n” policy system has been gradually improved, and the photovoltaic policy of the United States continues to improve, We expect that the installed capacity will be 150-155gw in 2021, with an increase of 20% at the same time, and it is expected to exceed 45% + growth in 2022. At the same time, the tou policy will further promote the development of distribution and energy storage, and we are optimistic about the growth of high-quality photovoltaic leaders. The new power system brings structural opportunities. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, we expect the total investment in power grid to increase steadily. However, in order to solve the problems of large-scale access to new energy, changes in load structure and large penetration of power electronic equipment, the investment in power grid will focus on the direction of grid construction, intelligent distribution network, digitization and pumped storage, which will bring new opportunities. The growth space is opened under the background of wind power carbon neutralization. The domestic substitution of industrial control continues, and the leader is always strong.
Key recommended targets: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) (global leader in power battery, global high-quality customers, leading technology and cost advantage), Shenzhen Inovance Technology Co.Ltd(300124) (general automation continues to exceed market expectations and comprehensive breakthrough in power assembly), Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) (global leader in monocrystalline silicon chips and components and strong comprehensive strength), Byd Company Limited(002594) (sales of electric vehicles continue to exceed market expectations and external supply of blade batteries accelerates) Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) (power lithium battery gradually becomes the leader and electronic cigarette provides support), Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) (global leader of inverter and forward-looking layout of energy storage), Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) (secondary equipment leader and power Internet of things benefit), Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) (global leader of negative electrode and diaphragm coating leader), Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) (global leader of wet diaphragm with strong profitability) Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co.Ltd(002850) (global leader in structural parts, high-quality customers, high-volume increase period), Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) (high nickel cathode leader, high-capacity release period), Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) (iron and lithium demand supermarket expectation, profit inflection point), Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) (Electrolyte & hexafluoride leader, new lithium salt leader), Shenzhen Capchem Technology.Ltd(300037) (electrolyte leader and fluorine chemical exceed market expectation) Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) (global leader of ternary precursor, high-quality and rapid production expansion of customers), Jiangsu Cnano Technology Co.Ltd(688116) (leader of carbon nanotube conductive agent, entering the upper volume stage), Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) (leader of cobalt salt and positive precursor), Hongfa Technology Co.Ltd(600885) (global leader of new and old relays, supermarket expectation in 2021), Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) (leader of series inverter, high performance growth) Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) (integrated component leader, profit elasticity in 2022 can be expected), Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) (silicon and perc battery leader, profit exceeding market expectations), Hangzhou First Applied Material Co.Ltd(603806) (EVA and Poe leader, photosensitive dry film loading), Sieyuan Electric Co.Ltd(002028) , Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) , Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) , Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) , Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) , Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) , Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) , Arctech Solar Holding Co.Ltd(688408) , company 9, China Leadshine Technology Co.Ltd(002979) , Shanghai Aiko Solar Energy Co.Ltd(600732) , Sieyuan Electric Co.Ltd(002028) Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) 。 It is suggested to pay attention to: Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Hunan Zhongke Electric Co.Ltd(300035) , beiteri, Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) , Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) , etc.
Risk tip: the investment growth rate is declining, the policy is lower than the market expectation, and the price competition is higher than the market expectation
