Key investment points
General view and recommendation of the industry: Securities Companies: frequent policies, optimistic about the long-term development of securities companies. ① Recently, a series of policies to promote the construction of securities companies and capital markets (insurance funds, new regulations on income swaps, comprehensive accounts and the full implementation of the registration system) are conducive to the industrial chain of ficc, wealth management and large investment banks. ② The uncertainty of long-term profit center is rising: the wealth management business continues to grow, and channels, products and investment advisers benefit deeply; The scale of derivatives has maintained rapid growth in recent years, new products have been launched one after another, the superposition system has been continuously standardized, and ficc constitutes the core increment; The construction of multi-level capital market has accelerated, and the science and innovation board and the Beijing stock exchange have brought new increments. At the same time, the reform of the registration system has also brought dividends to the stock business system. ③ There is a great contrast between the fundamentals and policies of securities companies and the valuation. The profits of securities companies continue to reach a new high. Relative to roe, they are close to the level of the previous bull market (2015-2016), but their valuation is still at the bottom 1 / 4 of the historical valuation. We are optimistic about the long-term allocation value of securities companies. Insurance: wait for the industry to pick up and pay attention to the reform process of listed insurance enterprises. ① The negative effects of the comprehensive reform of property insurance and auto insurance have fully emerged, and the stronger the industry pattern is. One year after the comprehensive reform of auto insurance, the premium growth of major insurance enterprises is expected to pick up. At the same time, in the long run, the industry competition pattern will be optimized, and the leading insurance enterprises will benefit deeply, further strengthen the advantages of scale, channel and brand, and create competitive barriers. ② Due to the contradiction between supply and demand in the life insurance industry in the short term, the pressure on the liability side is significant. However, in the long run, with the promotion of channel transformation, the aging trend of population and the strategic requirements of “healthy China”, the life insurance industry is facing profound reconstruction: the gradual formation of medical care ecology of insurance enterprises, with the increasing demand for health care, drives the industry to a virtuous cycle of development and growth, and is expected to promote the trend improvement of both ends of industry assets and liabilities. Ranking of recommended sectors of Soochow non bank: Securities and insurance, recommended individual stock portfolio [ East Money Information Co.Ltd(300059) ], [ China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) ], [China Property Insurance] and [far east Hongxin].
Important changes and comments in the industry: 1) China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued the regulatory rules on the solvency of insurance companies (II). We believe that: 1) the rules II further improve the measurement method of actual capital and minimum capital of insurance companies, and adopt one company and one policy for some insurance companies with significant impact; 2) ① from the perspective of liability side: the policy surplus is included in the capital by grade, resulting in a decline in the overall solvency and further differentiation at the product level; ② Asset side perspective: most risk factors have been comprehensively improved, and equity investment, long-term equity investment and non-standard investment may be affected, prompting insurance companies to focus on their main business. 3) The new regulatory rules will force insurance companies to fully return to insurance protection. At the same time, it will prevent problematic shareholders and funds from entering the insurance industry, and the capital quality of insurance companies will be raised to a higher level. 2) Mutual treasure announced on December 28, 2021 that it would stop operation at 24:00 on January 28, 2022. We believe that: 1) strengthen regulatory constraints, clarify licensed operation, mutual treasure and other network mutual assistance platforms withdraw from the historical stage; 2) Network mutual aid effectively educates customers to improve their awareness of insurance protection, and the future insurance demand will turn to compliant licensed insurance enterprises.
Risk tips: 1) the macro economy is not as expected; 2) Policy convergence inhibits industry innovation; 3) Market competition intensifies risks.
