Zhou’s view: big wealth management is the most powerful track of endogenous growth in big finance
From the stage of wide liquidity to wide credit, it is good for the securities sector. The new fund issuance in January, monetary easing policy and subsequent public fund earnings and retention data are expected to become catalysts. In terms of stock selection, we believe that big wealth management is the strongest track of endogenous growth in big finance. It is expected to become a long-term main opportunity and the core of the current beta of securities companies. The market still has poor expectations for the growth of the public offering track, and pays attention to the growth and profit verification of the track.
Securities companies: focus on the new issuance of funds in January, and it is expected that the non stock ownership in the market will maintain growth in 2022
(1) As of January 3, there were 81 new development funds with the starting date of the subscription period in January, including 7 / 4 / 4 / 4 for Wells Fargo / GF / Boshi / China Europe respectively. It is expected that the number of subsequent new development products will continue to increase; In the same period of 2021, there were 168 products, and the final distribution scale reached 514.5 billion. (2) In 2021, the annual average daily turnover of stock base was 1.13 trillion, with a year-on-year increase of + 25.4%. The average monthly daily turnover rate of Wande all a index was 1.53%, and the average monthly daily turnover rate of A-Shares in recent 3 years / recent 9 years was 1.42% / 1.39% respectively. Under the assumption that the average daily turnover rate in 2022 was 1.42% / 5% increase of all a index, the average daily turnover of stock in 2022 is expected to be + 7.1%. In addition, under the assumption that the scale of new development funds will decrease by 20% year-on-year in 2022, we expect the ownership of non commodity funds in the whole market to be + 31% / + 22% respectively in 2021 / 2022. (3) The securities business sector is in the double boom cycle of macro liquidity and industrial policies. It continues to be optimistic about the market of the sector, the first leader in the main line of large wealth management, and the head securities companies with undervalued value. Recommend Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) , Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) , East Money Information Co.Ltd(300059) and Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) , and benefit from Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) (H shares), China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) and China Greatwall Securities Co.Ltd(002939) .
Insurance: the implementation of the second generation phase II project has little impact on the head insurance enterprises
On December 30, 2021, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CIRC) issued the regulatory rules on the solvency of insurance companies (II), and the second generation phase II project was officially implemented from the first quarter of 2022. The main adjustments include: (1) the recognition of molecular real capital is becoming stricter: the capital of holding long share investment is deducted in full, the impairment of other long share investment needs to be withdrawn in full, and the appreciation of investment real estate is not included in the actual capital; Long term life insurance policies are included in core capital and subsidiary capital respectively according to the policy period. (2) Optimization of minimum capital requirements: the minimum capital for credit risk of green bonds, the minimum capital for insurance risk of professional science and technology insurance companies and the longevity risk of exclusive commercial endowment insurance will be given 10% discount respectively (the minimum capital will decrease); Optimized the asset range and evaluation curve of hedging interest rate risk (minimum capital decline); Add indicators of serious disease deterioration factors (minimum capital increase); Significantly improve the basic factors of long-term stock investment in the minimum capital measurement. The implementation of the second generation phase II project may reduce the solvency of insurance companies to varying degrees, and the solvency adequacy ratio of large insurance enterprises is much higher than the regulatory requirements, with minimal impact; The decline in the adequacy ratio of small and medium-sized insurance enterprises was higher than that of large insurance enterprises. In terms of investment perspective, the valuation of the sector hit the bottom, and China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) and Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) with leading transformation and outstanding comprehensive competitive advantage are recommended to benefit the subject AIA.
Combination of beneficial objects
Securities Firms: Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) , Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) , East Money Information Co.Ltd(300059) , Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) (H shares), China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) , China Greatwall Securities Co.Ltd(002939) , Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) ;
Insurance: China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) , Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) , AIA; Diversified Finance: Jiangsu Financial Leasing Co.Ltd(600901) .
Risk tip: stock market fluctuations have an uncertain impact on securities companies and insurance profits; The growth of insurance liabilities is less than expected; The profit growth of wealth management and asset management of securities companies was lower than expected.
