Key investment points
Views of this week (this week refers to December 27, 2021 to January 2, 2022, the same below)
On New Year's day, first tier cities have high enthusiasm for traveling, and peripheral / local tourism drives local scenic spots & theme accommodation. According to the data of the Ministry of transport, the total number of passengers sent across the country on the first day of the new year's Day holiday is expected to be 30.73 million (yoy-16.6%). The top three popular tourist sources / destinations of flying pig platform during the new year's Day holiday are Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Shanghai, Beijing and Chengdu respectively. According to Ctrip data, the average travel distance of holiday tourists and the average recreation radius of the destination show a double shrinking trend, the popularity of short-distance high-speed rail travel increases, and the number of tourists who buy high-speed rail tickets within 2 hours throughout the year increases by 30%. Among the orders for booking travel on New year's Day holiday in 2022 from the platform in December, intra provincial and peripheral travel account for more than 50%, and going to hot springs in the South and skiing in the north have become popular themes.
Spring Festival Outlook: the hotel reservation is in good condition, and the surrounding short-distance travel is not less popular. As of December 30, 2021, the hotel reservation volume of qunar platform from the first day to the sixth day of 2022 has exceeded that of the same period in 2019. In addition, under the restriction of outbound tourism, the number of air tickets in Macao during the Spring Festival increased by nearly 30%.
The recovery is expected to embrace Pro cyclical and service consumption growth. Looking forward to 2022, with the steady epidemic prevention and control and the continuous improvement of the industry boom, we are optimistic about the marginal improvement brought by the medium-term recovery and the high-quality service consumption sector with great upward flexibility, such as catering, hotels, scenic spots, Ota, outbound tourism, etc. In the long run, the gold digging potential of Pro cyclical service consumption is large. Under the impact of the epidemic, it highlights the leading core value. It is suggested to stick to the leading stocks in the high-quality track.
Optimistic about the bottom performance elasticity brought by the recovery of demand after the epidemic, and firm layout of consumption leaders for a long time.
1) Catering: the chain wave is still surging, and the willows are waiting for the flowers. Looking forward to the future, the repeated epidemic situation is still the biggest uncertainty in the industry. In 2020, the chain rate of China's catering industry was only 17.4%, and the average chain rate of developed countries reached 47.2%. In the long run, the trend of industry branding chain is still accelerating, and leading enterprises are expected to continue to benefit. With the continuous and steady epidemic prevention and control, we are optimistic about the upward flexibility of the performance in the epidemic era after the catering leader. We mainly recommend jiumaojiu, Haidilao in the medium and long term, and we suggest paying attention to Helen's, Naixue's tea and Yum china-s. The catering supply chain is highly related to the catering performance. We are optimistic about the catering supply chain opportunities under the general trend of catering industrialization. We suggest paying attention to Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) , nongnongshan spring and Yihai international.
2) Hotel: the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent, and the layout of the leading enterprises is accelerated to recover in a pro cyclical manner. According to yingdie consulting, single hotels or small and medium-sized hotels with weak profitability will be shut down under the impact of the epidemic in 2020. With the advantages of scale, brand, member resources and capital, Jinjiang, Huazhu and BTS, the leading chain hotels, expanded against the trend during the epidemic period. In 2020, the market share of Jinjiang, Huazhu and BTS in terms of hotel rooms will reach 20.2% / 13.9% / 9.2%, totaling 43.3%. With economic growth and consumption upgrading, the proportion of medium and high-end hotels has increased year by year and has become the main force of industry development. The epidemic accelerated industry integration and chain rate. With the smooth progress of the vaccine, the superposition of Pro cyclical economic recovery and the recovery of business travel demand, the recovery of hotel performance after the epidemic is expected. It is recommended to Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) , Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) . It is recommended to pay attention to Huazhu group-s.
3) Culture and Tourism: the demand has gradually warmed up, and we look forward to the improvement of prosperity after the epidemic. Under the trend of the epidemic situation, local consumption & surrounding tourism is booming, and the advocacy of "local new year" in some provinces and cities is expected to release the potential of local consumption. At the same time, many countries around the world have released signals to liberalize border control. We expect that Australia, Germany, France, Singapore and other countries will gradually liberalize border control, and overseas cultural tourism is expected to continue to benefit. It is suggested to pay attention to Fosun tourism culture, Caissa Tosun Development Co.Ltd(000796) , Utour Group Co.Ltd(002707) . In terms of structure, we believe that the consumption potential and demand of residents' culture and tourism are still strong. With the continuous rise of China's vaccine coverage, the performance elasticity of high-quality targets is sufficient and has layout value. Recommend Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) , Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) , and pay attention to Tongcheng Yilong, Ctrip group-s, China Cyts Tours Holding Co.Ltd(600138) .
Risk warning: there may be risks such as the continuous spread of the epidemic, macroeconomic fluctuations and policy changes; There may be a risk of fierce industry competition; There may be risks that the progress of business transformation, market development and capacity improvement is lower than the market expectation.
