The overall sales of 2021q4 brand clothing is weak, and it is optimistic about the recovery of industrial leaders and international brands in 2022
Key recommended / benefited targets this week:
(1) OEM leader: Huali Industrial Group Company Limited(300979) , Shenzhou International, Anhui Korrun Co.Ltd(300577) , beneficiary: virgin;
(2) Sports shoes and clothing retailer leader: taobo;
(3) Sports and leisure leaders: Anta sports, Li Ning, Bosideng, Hla Group Corp.Ltd(600398) , Zhejiang Semir Garment Co.Ltd(002563) ;
(4) Subject of epidemic prevention: Winner Medical Co.Ltd(300888) .
The overall weakness of 2021q4 brand clothing sales is mainly due to the impact of the epidemic on offline passenger flow, and the overall online performance did not meet expectations. Looking forward to 2022, we are optimistic about the recovery of OEM plate and international brands. In the long run, Huali Industrial Group Company Limited(300979) , Shenzhou International, Anhui Korrun Co.Ltd(300577) are recommended, and virgin is the beneficiary.
In terms of brand clothing, we are still more optimistic about sports shoes and clothing tracks with stronger functional attributes. In 2021h1, Chinese brands are catalyzed by the Xinjiang cotton incident and have a high overall base. In 2022, they are optimistic about the performance recovery elasticity of international brands in Greater China, and it is expected that the performance elasticity is better than that of Chinese brands. Highlight taobo, Anta sports and Li Ning.
It is expected that the impact of this round of epidemic in Beilun, Ningbo will be limited, and the long-term value of Shenzhou International will not change
On January 1, there was an epidemic in Shenzhou International Ningbo Beilun factory. At present, the company has carried out zoning management. The prevention area (some dyeing and finishing / weaving / printing processes) can start at any time after zero cases. The control area (1 / 2 / 4 garment making department, dyeing and finishing / Embroidery Department and the company headquarters) is expected to be unsealed in one week, and the sealing control area (3 / 5 / 6 garment making department) is expected to be unsealed in two weeks, This round of shutdown is expected to affect 1% of the total production capacity of the whole year. Considering the basic recovery of overseas production capacity, China will catch up with the production capacity through local Spring Festival and early commencement. With the acceleration of recruitment and capacity climbing throughout the year, we expect the total production capacity to increase by about 20% in 2022, which is higher than that in normal years, and the long-term value of the company will not change.
Focus on company updates this week
Data of Alibaba platform sports shoes and clothing: in 2021q4, the growth rates of Alibaba platforms of various brands were Li Ning + 33.15%, Anta + 27.78%, Filo + 34.30%, Tebu + 4.59%, Nike - 14.45%, Adidas - 36.08%, NewBalance + 17.58%, SKECH + 12.62% and puma - 39.08% respectively. Before the high base of 2022q2, we continue to focus on recommending Anta sports and Li Ning, the leaders of sportswear, and suggest paying attention to the surge with high probability and high performance elasticity after Q2 due to the recovery of international brands in advance.
Anta Sports released Anta champion all-weather series, and the categories of champion series are further enriched. The new product was launched in four Anta champion stores in Beijing, Changchun, Xi'an and Tianjin on December 28. The new series of products include Wang Yibo's same 2in1 all-weather jacket, Gore-Tex waterproof and moisture permeable jacket, wind proof and heat gathering women's waist short jacket, 3D three-dimensional cutting silhouette sweater, hooded sweater and other products. With Anta water repellent technology and outdoor fabric Gore-Tex, it can prevent cold and keep warm while meeting the needs of different scenes, and is not afraid of extreme weather.
Li Ning released the new ultralight 19th generation running shoes, and the midsole technology was upgraded again. The overall weight of the new generation of ultra light shoes is reduced by 5%, the rebound is increased by 8.4%, and the core performance is further improved. The TPU stabilizer is upgraded from single layer to double layer, and the support and torsional performance are improved. For the first time, it is equipped with new GCR light anti slip rubber, which improves the wet anti slip ability by 25% and reduces the weight by 15% compared with ordinary rubber.
Risk tip: the epidemic has repeatedly affected the terminal retail environment and exacerbated the shortage of international brand supply chain.
