Zhou Observer: Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) reached strategic cooperation with Henan Shuanghui Investment & Development Co.Ltd(000895) to break through the food business in multiple ways
On January 1, 2022, Muyuan Group signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Henan Shuanghui Investment & Development Co.Ltd(000895) . Wang Chengqi, deputy director of Henan Provincial Department of agriculture and rural development, said in his speech: “The signing of the strategic cooperation agreement between the two sides will further enhance the advantages of both sides, make up for their shortcomings, reduce their costs and improve their competitiveness; promote the whole chain integration and high-quality development of the pig industry in our province; and inject new energy into the construction of a strong animal husbandry province, leading the development of the national pig industry and building a trillion level modern food cluster in Henan with world influence And stimulate new impetus. “.
We expect that during the “14th five year plan” period, Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) pig slaughter volume will still maintain an increasing trend, but the growth rate will be significantly slower than that during the “13th five year plan” period. We expect that the development goal of Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) during the 14th Five Year Plan period will be to extend to the downstream slaughtering and food processing business, and its advantages in extending to the downstream of the industrial chain will be mainly reflected in three aspects: (1) the utilization rate of self built slaughtering capacity is high, which is expected to shuffle the existing slaughtering capacity of the industry; (2) “Transporting pigs” to “transporting meat” reduces transportation costs and raises the profitability of a single head; (3) Cooperate in slaughtering and cooperative food to help break through regional breeding capacity constraints.
Zhou’s view: the pig cycle reversal is imminent, and the transgenic breeding policy is implemented
The pig cycle is about to reverse in 2022, and the layout is in the period of capacity removal. It is recommended that the breeding cost is leading Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) ; The recovery of production indicators was accelerated, and the cost decreased by Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) ; Cycle reversal drives Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) with excellent performance elasticity; Leshan Giantstar Farming&Husbandry Corporation Limited(603477) with both breeding cost and capital advantages; Relevant beneficiary object Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) . Feed sales benefit from the high scale of pig stock, and the increase of column pressure in winter is unabated. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading feed enterprises Guangdong Haid Group Co.Limited(002311) with outstanding advantages in product power and service power.
The price rise conduction superimposes weather disturbance, and the planting chain landscape continues. It is suggested to pay attention to the Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation And Development Co.Ltd(601952) target of grain price increase. Highlight the recommendation of transgenic technology with outstanding advantages Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) ; And Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) where the fundamentals will improve; Related beneficiary objects Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) , Winall Hi-Tech Seed Co.Ltd(300087) , Syngenta (to be listed).
This week’s market performance this week’s market performance (12.27-12.31): Agriculture underperformed the market by 0.56 percentage points. This week, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.60%, the agricultural index rose by 0.04% and underperformed the market by 0.56 percentage points. In terms of sub sectors, the fishery sector led the increase, with an increase of 8.01%; The seed sector led the decline, down 5.50%. In terms of individual stocks, Shandong Xiantan Co.Ltd(002746) (+ 46.51%), Shandong Oriental Ocean Sci-Tech Co.Ltd(002086) (+ 21.74%) and Asia-Potash International Investment (Guangzhou) Co.Ltd(000893) (+ 15.47%) led the gains.
Price tracking this week (12.27-12.31): the prices of pigs and piglets rose, while the prices of medium speed chicken and soybean meal fell
Pig breeding: according to the monitoring of Boya Hexun, the average price of three yuan pigs abroad was 16.05 yuan / kg on December 31, 2021, up from + 0.38 yuan / kg last Friday; The average price of piglets was 23.9 yuan / kg, up from last Friday + 0.64 yuan / kg; The average price of white striped meat was 21.79 yuan / kg, down from – 1.19 yuan / kg last Friday; The price ratio of pig feed is 4.48:1. According to wind data, as of December 31, the average profit of self breeding head was -39.77 yuan / head, compared with -3.54 yuan / head; The average profit of purchased piglets was 167.80 yuan / head, with a month on month increase of + 45.18 yuan / head.
White feather broiler: according to wind data, the average price of chicken seedlings this week was 1.11 yuan / feather, a month on month increase of + 1.83%; The average price of wool chicken was 7.97 yuan / kg, with a month on month ratio of – 0.13%; The breeding profit of hairy chicken was -0.39 yuan / feather, compared with -0.85 yuan / feather.
Risk tip: the macro economy is down, and the consumption remains depressed; Uncertainty of animal diseases in winter, etc.
