1. Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) the new mine was put into operation to help the development of the company’s copper business. On December 27, 2021, Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) ‘s Tibet Julong copper phase I was completed and put into operation, with an annual output of about 160000 tons of copper. After the project is combined with the nearby rongmutola copper mine and approved, it can finally achieve an annual output of more than 600000 tons of copper metal, which is expected to become the largest copper mine in the world. The production of Tibet Julong copper is good for the company’s performance. Since this year, the global copper industry has remained prosperous. The production of Tibet Julong copper is expected to bring performance growth to Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) . In terms of price, as of December 31, 2021, the closing price of China cathode copper futures was 70110 yuan / ton, up 21% from the beginning of the year. At present, the price has reached a high level in recent three years, maintaining a high level of more than 50000 yuan / ton for about 17 months. In terms of output, the first phase of Tibet Julong copper industry will reach an output of about 160000 tons, accounting for 35% of the company’s total copper output in 2020. Driven by demand, the prosperity of copper metal industry is expected to continue to improve. The increase in copper demand mainly comes from the new energy industry. On the one hand, under the background of carbon neutralization, with the growth of new energy power generation, the demand for wires and cables for power generation devices and power transmission grids has increased significantly, thus increasing the demand for copper. According to the data of China electricity Union, the newly installed PV capacity in China increased by 44% year-on-year from January to September 2021. From January to November 2021, the installed capacity of wind power increased by 29% year-on-year. On the other hand, the copper consumption of new energy vehicles is four times that of traditional vehicles. The growth of new energy vehicle production promotes the demand for copper. From January to November 2021, the cumulative output of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles was 3.193 million, a year-on-year increase of 155%. In the long run, driven by the demand for new energy, the copper industry is expected to continue to prosper in the future. The production of Tibet Julong copper will help to increase the volume of Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) copper metal business, which is expected to bring performance growth to the company in 2022.
2. In the past week, most of the major non-ferrous metals rose or remained flat, with battery grade lithium carbonate rising by 8.3% and cobalt sulfate rising by 2.3%; COMEX copper rose 1.2%, SHFE aluminum and electrolytic aluminum rose 1.4%, LME zinc rose 2.4%, and LME lead rose 0.8%; Praseodymium oxide rose 2.3%, neodymium oxide rose 1.6% and terbium oxide rose 0.9%. Energy metals rose significantly, with lithium rising 21.3% and LME nickel rising 4.7%. The reason for the rise in the price of metal lithium is, on the one hand, the reduction of overhaul output of raw material manufacturers; On the other hand, near the end of the year, downstream lubricant, glass ceramics, alloys and other manufacturers have a demand for stock storage, and the heat of new energy terminals is maintained. In terms of nickel international futures, the inventory has continued to decline since May 2021. At present, it is close to 100000 tons, at a low level.
3. China’s manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, and the demand gradually recovered. This month, China’s manufacturing PMI index rose slightly by 0.2 percentage points to 50.3% over the previous month, bottoming out for the second consecutive month, indicating that the national economy as a whole maintained a stable recovery trend. From the perspective of trend, except for the decline of production PMI index, the other four items rebounded month on month, reflecting the gradual recovery of demand. However, structurally, the demand side is still weak.
4. Market review. Last week, 9 of the 11 Shenwan nonferrous metal plates rose or were flat, and 2 plates fell. Among them, other small metal plates increased the most, with an increase of 5.2%; Aluminum plate fell the most, down 0.6%. In terms of individual stocks, the top three gainers were Changjiang materials, Anhui Xinke New Materials Co.Ltd(600255) , Tibet Summit Resources Co.Ltd(600338) , with weekly gains of 61.04%, 27.31% and 25.95% respectively; The top three declines were Anhui Xinbo Aluminum Co.Ltd(003038) , Poco Holding Co.Ltd(300811) , Nanjing Yunhai Special Metals Co.Ltd(002182) , with weekly declines of 16.68%, 8.75% and 7.98% respectively.
Investment advice
It is suggested to pay attention to Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) of performance growth after the new mine is put into operation and the benefit targets under the boom of new energy metals, such as Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , Zangger mining, Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) .
Risk statement
Repeated international epidemics, “carbon neutrality” policy changes, international trade policy changes, etc.
