In the export industry, the growth of high-quality segments is superior, and there is high room for penetration improvement. After the epidemic, new consumption trends emerged, and the subdivided track showed high growth, such as outdoor products, artificial lawn, smart home and other industries. The track is small and new, and the consumption upgrading logic is smooth. It is expected to gradually replace traditional products and increase the penetration rate rapidly. In addition to the short-term demand release caused by the change of consumption habits after the epidemic, in the medium and long term, the product awareness is improved, the market scale is expected to enter a period of accelerated rise, and the demand growth is sustainable.
“Invisible champion” has outstanding supply chain and R & D strength, and high competition barriers. In terms of industry pattern, the production functions of the export industry are mainly concentrated in China, with scarce high-quality suppliers and stable pattern. Customers have high audit barriers to suppliers, high-quality suppliers can achieve in-depth binding with key customers, stable order growth and strong anti risk ability. At the company level, there are many leaders with high market share in the export growth track. With outstanding supply chain management ability and leading design and R & D technology, we have established in-depth cooperation with downstream leading customers, with high competitive barriers and considerable profit space. The net interest rate of some enterprises has reached a high level of 20-30%, breaking through the profit ceiling of traditional OEM enterprises.
The short-term repression factors are expected to ease, and there is a large room for profitability to rebound. In 2021, export enterprises were restricted by multiple external factors such as the rise in the price of raw materials, the high price of sea freight and the appreciation of RMB exchange rate, and their profitability reached a historical low. At present, the prices of various raw materials have eased to varying degrees, and the sea freight has entered the consolidation stage. It is expected that enterprises with more rise in raw materials and lower value this year will have greater fluctuations in costs and terminal prices, stronger bargaining power for downstream customers at the end of the year, and more room for demand rebound and performance flexibility.
Risk tips: the risk of expanding the scope of impact of overseas epidemic, the risk of sharp fluctuations in raw material prices, the risk of continuous rise in sea freight prices, the risk of sharp fluctuations in exchange rates, and the risk of intensified industry competition.
