The sales of top 100 real estate enterprises improved month on month in December and remained negative year-on-year. According to Kerui data, the full caliber sales amount of the top 100 real estate enterprises in December 2021 was 1.1 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of - 36% and a month on month growth rate of + 30%. We believe that the month on month improvement is mainly due to the increased promotion and marketing efforts in December, as well as the recent demand side stimulus policies introduced by many cities, such as house purchase subsidies and the reduction of the mortgage interest rate of the first house. In terms of year-on-year growth, the monthly sales of the top 100 real estate enterprises still showed a significant decline. Near the Spring Festival, some real estate enterprises are still under great pressure. We expect that more policies will be issued in the future to maintain the steady development of the commercial housing sales market.
The annual sales growth of the top 100 real estate enterprises turned negative year-on-year, and the average target completion rate was only 88%. According to Kerui's data, the full caliber sales of the top 100 real estate enterprises in 2021 were 12.6 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of - 3.2%, the first time since Kerui made statistics on the sales data of the top 100 in 2014, and the year-on-year growth rate of annual sales was negative. From the annual sales completion rate of real estate enterprises that announced the annual sales target, the average in 2021 was 88%, which was also the lowest in recent five years. From 2016 to 2020, the annual performance of real estate enterprises was over fulfilled, with an average completion rate of more than 100%.
The performance of the real estate sector was average this week, and the property sector outperformed Shanghai and Shenzhen 300. This week, Shenwan A-share real estate sector rose or fell by + 0.6%, ranking 19th among all sectors; Hong Kong stocks and real estate sector rose or fell by + 0.9%, ranking 9th among all sectors. This week, the Hang Seng property service and management index rose or fell by + 1.4%, the Hang Seng China enterprise index rose or fell by + 0.4%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose or fell by + 0.4%;
On Monday, the sales of commercial houses in the second tier cities continued to improve month on month, but the year-on-year growth rate of the first, second, third and fourth tier cities was still downward. This week (December 25 - December 31), commercial housing transactions in 40 cities totaled 7.93 million square meters, with a week-on-week ratio of + 12%, a week-on-week ratio of - 24%, a monthly cumulative year-on-year ratio of - 14% and an annual cumulative year-on-year ratio of + 8%. Among them, first tier cities: week on week + 28%, week on week - 20%, month on month - 20% and year on year + 15%; Second tier cities: yoy + 11%, yoy - 22%, cumulative yoy - 7% and cumulative yoy + 8%; Third and fourth tier cities: Mom - 4%, yoy - 39%, cumulative monthly yoy - 30%, and cumulative annual yoy + 2%.
This week, second-hand housing transactions in first and second tier cities increased month on month, while those in third tier cities still decreased. This week (December 25 to December 31), the second-hand housing transactions in 17 cities totaled 1.56 million square meters, with a week-on-week ratio of + 9%, a week-on-week ratio of - 30%, a monthly cumulative year-on-year ratio of - 33% and an annual cumulative year-on-year ratio of - 8%. Among them, first tier cities: week on week + 18%, week on week - 32%, month on month - 35% and year on year - 8%; Second tier cities: yoy + 7%, yoy - 23%, cumulative yoy - 27% and cumulative yoy - 8%; Third tier cities: Mom - 34%, yoy - 75%, cumulative yoy - 67% and cumulative yoy - 13%.
Investment advice
In the real estate sector, state-owned enterprises with sound operation are recommended in the short term, such as Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) and China Construction Development International. In the property sector, we believe that after the liquidity crisis of related real estate enterprises is lifted, private property companies have great flexibility in future valuation repair, and recommend Jinke service, Jianye new life and country garden service.
Risk statement
The implementation effect of real estate improvement policies is less than expected; M & A integration is less than expected
