Monthly report of banking industry: with the implementation of RRR reduction, the one-year LPR fell, the industry index lost the market, and individual stocks rose less and fell more. From December 10 to 30, the CSI 300 index fell 3% and the bank index fell 4%. Among the 30 CITIC primary industry indexes, the performance of the bank index ranked 27th. In the banking sector, the index of large state-owned banks fell 0.9%, the index of national joint-stock banks fell 6%, and the index of regional banks fell 3%. Individual stocks rose less and fell more. The top five banks are: Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) , Bank Of Zhengzhou Co.Ltd(002936) , Jiangsu Zijin Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601860) , China Citic Bank Corporation Limited(601998) , Jiangsu Jiangyin Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(002807) ; The top five banks are: Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) , Bank Of Hangzhou Co.Ltd(600926) , China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) , Bank Of Qingdao Co.Ltd(002948) .
The year-on-year growth rate of M2 was stable with the policy interest rate, and the one-year LPR decreased by 5bp. In December, the manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, continuing to maintain the expansion range. In November, the year-on-year increase of CPI expanded slightly, the increase of PPI fell slightly, the investment growth continued to fall slightly, and the import and export maintained rapid growth. In November, the year-on-year increase in the scale of social financing changed from less to more, mainly due to the year-on-year increase in corporate bonds, government bonds and stock financing, and the year-on-year decrease in RMB loans. At the end of November, M2 increased by 8.5% year-on-year, 0.2 and 2.2 percentage points lower than that at the end of last month and the same period of last year respectively. The latest MLF and reverse repo interest rate were flat month on month. The one-year LPR decreased by 5bp, and the LPR over five years remained unchanged.
The people’s Bank of China held its 2022 working meeting and the monetary policy committee held its fourth quarter regular meeting. The 2022 working conference requires that the prudent monetary policy should be flexible and appropriate; Accurately increase financial support in key areas; Further improve the macro Prudential policy framework and governance mechanism; Adhere to promoting the prevention and resolution of financial risks; Actively promote international cooperation in green finance. The monetary policy committee held its regular meeting in the fourth quarter and pointed out that a prudent monetary policy should be flexible and appropriate, give full play to the dual functions of the aggregate and structure of monetary policy tools, increase support for the real economy, maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity, enhance the stability of the growth of total credit, and maintain the basic matching between the growth of money supply and social financing scale and economic growth, Keep the macro leverage ratio basically stable. Structural monetary policy tools should actively do a good job in “addition” and make accurate efforts; Safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of housing consumers, better meet the reasonable housing needs of home buyers, and promote the healthy development and virtuous cycle of the real estate market.
Investment advice It is expected that the net interest margin of the banking sector will remain stable at the current level in 2022, the growth rate of total assets of the banking industry will be improved, the asset quality and provision coverage will continue to improve, and the performance growth will drop slightly, but still remain at a high level in recent years. It is considered that the current extremely low valuation level fully reflects the pessimistic expectation of the market on the credit risk exposure and macroeconomic downturn of the real estate industry. At present, the sector has high allocation value and maintains the investment rating of “stronger than the market”. The internal differentiation of banks is a foregone conclusion. When choosing investment targets, we should base on the differentiation situation and follow the trend.
Risk tip: the asset quality has deteriorated significantly, resulting in systemic risk.
